TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
66-70 | Road
3
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
85-51 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cal Quantrill
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Shane Drohan
#55 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Quantrill | 6-4 | 2.90 | 1.14 | 83.2 | 60 |
| Shane Drohan | 6-5 | 3.84 | 1.29 | 105.1 | 104 |
6-4
W-L
6-5
2.90 Ldr
ERA
3.84
1.14 Ldr
WHIP
1.29
83.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 105.1
60
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 104
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
52%
BREWERS
48%
▲ Edge: +12.10% (TEX)
RANGERS
39%
Book Odds: +154
BREWERS
62%
Book Odds: -166
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.8 (Over)
Over 8.0
67%
Under 8.0
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
TEXAS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
TEX By 1-2 runs
18.7%
TEX By 3-4 runs
14.1%
MIL By 1-2 runs
18.1%
MIL By 3-4 runs
13.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 3.20
Milwaukee
4.8
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Texas
3
TEXAS
Book Implied: 3.20
Milwaukee
4
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rangers
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim
Rangers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.8
B
Sim
u8.0
Push
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
TEX @ MIL
7 - 4
Aug 29, 2026
TEX @ MIL
3 - 5
Aug 28, 2026
TEX @ MIL
1 - 6
Sep 10, 2025
MIL @ TEX
3 - 6
Sep 9, 2025
MIL @ TEX
4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.713
OPS
▲
.743
183
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+53.7% more
Texas: 4.5
vs
Milwaukee: 2.1
Home Runs (L5)
+48.2% more
Texas: 1.4
vs
Milwaukee: 0.7
Errors (L5)
+29.0% more
Texas: 0.7
vs
Milwaukee: 0.4
Home Runs (Season)
+15.8% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Milwaukee: 154.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
5.0
3
MIL Score
4.8
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
12.1 / 6.7
7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.4
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 6.3
7.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
16.5 / 12.7
14.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.1 / 4.5
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +149 / -181
→
+154 / -166
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
TEX
MIL
TEX
ML
62%
101-61
53%
86-76
52%
84-78
57%
91-70
ATS
58%
94-68
57%
92-70
48%
78-84
61%
98-63
TTL
40%
62-92-8
53%
78-70-14
50%
77-77-8
55%
81-66-14
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