SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
72-64 | Road
6
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
81-54 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Walker Buehler
#10 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Martinez
#28 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler | 8-6 | 4.63 | 1.35 | 126.1 | 108 |
| Nick Martinez | 13-4 | 2.93 | 1.10 | 147.2 | 87 |
8-6
W-L
13-4
4.63
ERA
Ldr 2.93
1.35
WHIP
Ldr 1.10
126.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 147.2
108 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
87
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
54%
RAYS
46%
▲ Edge: +7.90% (SD)
PADRES
46%
Book Odds: +117
RAYS
56%
Book Odds: -126
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.3 (Over)
Over 8.0
62%
Under 8.0
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.1%
SD By 3-4 runs
15.0%
TB By 1-2 runs
17.5%
TB By 3-4 runs
12.1%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
4.9
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 3.20
Tampa Bay
4.4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 3.20
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Loss
54% Win Prob
C
Sim
Padres
Loss
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.3
B
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
SD @ TB
4 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
SD @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 28, 2026
SD @ TB
4 - 9
Apr 27, 2025
TB @ SD
4 - 2
Apr 26, 2025
TB @ SD
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.258
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.925
▲
OPS
.728
4
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+43.7% more
San Diego: 3.5
vs
Tampa Bay: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+24.3% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 4.5
OPS (Season)
+19.7%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Tampa Bay: 72.8%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.1%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Tampa Bay: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
4.9
6
TB Score
4.4
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.6 / 5.8
11.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.7
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.5 / 7.1
7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 9.4
18.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.0 / 3.5
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +112 / -135
→
+117 / -126
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
8
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
SD
TB
SD
ML
58%
95-68
51%
85-83
58%
95-68
51%
85-82
ATS
60%
97-66
54%
91-77
55%
90-73
55%
92-75
TTL
47%
73-81-9
51%
82-80-6
51%
78-75-10
54%
86-74-6
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