KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
62-75 | Road
8
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
68-68 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Daniel Lynch IV
#41 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Foster Griffin
#22 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Lynch IV | 4-4 | 2.93 | 1.03 | 58.1 | 43 |
| Foster Griffin | 15-4 | 3.19 | 1.13 | 149.1 | 135 |
4-4
W-L
15-4
2.93 Ldr
ERA
3.19
1.03 Ldr
WHIP
1.13
58.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 149.1
43
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 135
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
53%
GUARDIANS
47%
▲ Edge: +12.60% (KC)
ROYALS
40%
Book Odds: +148
GUARDIANS
61%
Book Odds: -159
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +2.5 (Under)
Over 8.0
30%
Under 8.0
70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
KC By 1-2 runs
18.9%
KC By 3-4 runs
14.4%
CLE By 1-2 runs
17.9%
CLE By 3-4 runs
12.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
2.9
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.20
Cleveland
2.6
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.20
Cleveland
2
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
A
Sim
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 5.5
A
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
CLE @ KC
2 - 3
Sep 26, 2026
CLE @ KC
11 - 5
Sep 25, 2026
CLE @ KC
12 - 9
Aug 30, 2026
KC @ CLE
1 - 11
Aug 29, 2026
KC @ CLE
8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.26
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.316
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.718
▲
OPS
.696
170
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+83.8% more
Kansas City: 1.4
vs
Cleveland: 0.2
Total Bases (L5)
+30.9% more
Kansas City: 16.9
vs
Cleveland: 11.7
Hits (L5)
+9.4% more
Kansas City: 10.3
vs
Cleveland: 9.4
Home Runs (Season)
+4.7% more
Kansas City: 170.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
2.9
8
CLE Score
2.6
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.2
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
9.4 / 10.3
5.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.2 / 1.4
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 7.7
6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 16.9
10.0 / 19.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.3
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +118 / -142
→
+148 / -159
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
KC
CLE
KC
ML
54%
87-74
55%
89-72
49%
80-82
56%
90-70
ATS
58%
93-68
57%
91-70
59%
95-67
58%
93-67
TTL
55%
88-71-2
58%
90-64-7
43%
69-90-2
54%
83-70-7
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