COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
52-84 | Road
1
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
81-55 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zach Agnos
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Martin Perez
#33 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Agnos | 0-2 | 5.68 | 1.43 | 76.0 | 51 |
| Martin Perez | 8-8 | 3.12 | 1.21 | 115.1 | 85 |
0-2
W-L
8-8
5.68
ERA
Ldr 3.12
1.43
WHIP
Ldr 1.21
76.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 115.1
51
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 85
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
37%
BRAVES
63%
▲ Edge: +4.90% (COL)
ROCKIES
32%
Book Odds: +211
BRAVES
70%
Book Odds: -228
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.2 (Under)
Over 8.5
49%
Under 8.5
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
COL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
COL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
3.4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.50
Atlanta
4.9
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Colorado
3
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.50
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Braves
Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Braves
Win
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockies (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim
Braves (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
COL @ ATL
2 - 3
Aug 29, 2026
COL @ ATL
1 - 2
Aug 28, 2026
COL @ ATL
4 - 6
May 3, 2026
ATL @ COL
11 - 6
May 2, 2026
ATL @ COL
9 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.64
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.254
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.322
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.417
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.739
OPS
▲
.757
180
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+12.9% more
Atlanta: 7.7
vs
Colorado: 6.8
Total Bases (L5)
+12.3% more
Atlanta: 15.0
vs
Colorado: 13.4
Hits (L5)
+8.1% more
Atlanta: 10.2
vs
Colorado: 9.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+7.8% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Colorado: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
3.4
1
ATL Score
4.9
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.2 / 9.4
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 6.8
9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
15.0 / 13.4
7.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.3 / 4.5
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +193 / -238
→
+211 / -228
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
COL
ATL
COL
ML
46%
77-90
60%
97-64
54%
90-78
55%
88-73
ATS
57%
96-71
60%
97-64
52%
87-81
52%
83-78
TTL
53%
83-73-11
60%
93-62-6
49%
76-80-11
50%
77-78-6
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