MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
68-68 | Road
4
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
65-73 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sandy Alcantara
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Cavalli
#24 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 13-8 | 3.38 | 1.18 | 183.2 | 137 |
| Cade Cavalli | 12-5 | 3.21 | 1.21 | 148.2 | 169 |
13-8
W-L
12-5
3.38
ERA
Ldr 3.21
1.18 Ldr
WHIP
1.21
183.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
148.2
137
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 169
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
40%
NATIONALS
60%
▲ Edge: +10.40% (WSH)
MARLINS
52%
Book Odds: -109
NATIONALS
50%
Book Odds: +101
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0
56%
Under 8.0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
MIA By 1-2 runs
15.5%
MIA By 3-4 runs
9.8%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.7%
WSH By 3-4 runs
17.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3.6
MIAMI
Book Implied: 4.80
Washington
4.9
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Book Implied: 4.80
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nationals
Win
60% Win Prob
B
Sim
Nationals
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
A
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 31, 2026
MIA @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
MIA @ WSH
6 - 2
Aug 29, 2026
MIA @ WSH
4 - 5
Aug 28, 2026
MIA @ WSH
2 - 9
Aug 23, 2026
WSH @ MIA
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.727
OPS
▲
.744
168
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+83.0% more
Washington: 1.5
vs
Miami: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+52.3% more
Washington: 15.9
vs
Miami: 10.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+33.6% more
Washington: 8.5
vs
Miami: 6.4
Home Runs (Season)
+25.0% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.6
4
WSH Score
4.9
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.3 / 7.3
9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 6.4
7.0 / 17.0
Total Bases
15.9 / 10.4
11.0 / 10.0
Walks
5.1 / 4.6
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -155 / +128
→
-109 / +101
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIA
WSH
MIA
ML
57%
92-69
48%
78-84
54%
87-74
55%
88-72
ATS
58%
93-68
56%
91-71
57%
91-70
54%
86-74
TTL
50%
77-78-6
56%
88-69-5
42%
65-90-6
53%
82-73-5
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