SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
64-72 | Road
3
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
67-70 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kade Anderson
#13 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Soriano
#40 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kade Anderson | 0-0 | 4.76 | 1.24 | 5.2 | 5 |
| Jose Soriano | 10-7 | 3.43 | 1.29 | 144.1 | 143 |
0-0
W-L
10-7
4.76
ERA
Ldr 3.43
1.24 Ldr
WHIP
1.29
5.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 144.1
5
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 143
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
49%
BLUE JAYS
51%
▲ Edge: +0.30% (TOR)
MARINERS
51%
Book Odds: -102
BLUE JAYS
51%
Book Odds: -105
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.2 (Over)
Over 7.5
62%
Under 7.5
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
TORONTO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
SEA By 1-2 runs
18.3%
SEA By 3-4 runs
13.3%
TOR By 1-2 runs
18.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
4.3
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.50
Toronto
4.4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Seattle
7
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.50
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Loss
84% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim
Mariners (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.7
C
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
SEA @ TOR
0 - 7
Aug 29, 2026
SEA @ TOR
3 - 4
Aug 28, 2026
SEA @ TOR
1 - 8
Jul 5, 2026
TOR @ SEA
0 - 4
Jul 4, 2026
TOR @ SEA
0 - 11
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.10
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.381
.693
▲
OPS
.692
182
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+78.7% more
Toronto: 9.5
vs
Seattle: 5.3
Total Bases (L5)
+71.7% more
Toronto: 16.2
vs
Seattle: 9.4
Walks (L5)
+50.8% more
Toronto: 3.8
vs
Seattle: 2.5
Home Runs (L5)
+28.8% more
Toronto: 1.5
vs
Seattle: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
4.3
3
TOR Score
4.4
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.5 / 5.3
5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.2
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 7.9
10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
16.2 / 9.4
6.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.8 / 2.5
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +142 / -173
→
-102 / -105
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
SEA
TOR
SEA
ML
46%
74-87
50%
81-81
50%
80-80
52%
85-77
ATS
56%
90-71
60%
98-64
49%
79-81
59%
95-67
TTL
51%
80-76-5
56%
85-67-10
45%
70-85-5
53%
81-71-10
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