CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
64-72 | Road
5
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
77-59 | Home
17
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Abbott
#41 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Gausman
#12 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbott | 6-9 | 4.15 | 1.40 | 145.1 | 114 |
| Kevin Gausman | 7-11 | 4.37 | 1.26 | 150.1 | 149 |
6-9
W-L
7-11
4.15 Ldr
ERA
4.37
1.40
WHIP
Ldr 1.26
145.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 150.1
114
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 149
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
42%
CUBS
58%
▲ Edge: +7.80% (CIN)
REDS
35%
Book Odds: +189
CUBS
67%
Book Odds: -204
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.8
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.3 (Over)
Over 9.5
63%
Under 9.5
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.8
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN +0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
16.8%
CIN By 3-4 runs
11.2%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.4%
CHC By 3-4 runs
15.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 4
Chicago
5.8
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.50
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
2
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 4
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Cubs
Win
58% Win Prob
B
Sim
Cubs
Win
84% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.8
D
Sim
Cubs (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o9.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.8
B
Sim
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
CHC @ CIN
9 - 1
Sep 19, 2026
CHC @ CIN
5 - 2
Sep 18, 2026
CHC @ CIN
4 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
CIN @ CHC
7 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
CIN @ CHC
5 - 17
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.11
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.229
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.305
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.394
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.699
▲
OPS
.374
213
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+53.0% more
Chicago: 0.8
vs
Cincinnati: 0.3
Walks (L5)
+33.4% more
Chicago: 4.0
vs
Cincinnati: 3.0
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+87.8% more
Cincinnati: 4.1
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
5.0
5
CHC Score
5.8
17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.0 / 10.4
19.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 2.4
6.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 8.2
4.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
16.3 / 18.4
40.0 / 14.0
Walks
4.0 / 3.0
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +163 / -199
→
+189 / -204
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
9.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
CIN
CHC
CIN
ML
58%
93-68
55%
88-71
51%
82-79
49%
79-81
ATS
61%
97-63-1
54%
86-73
47%
75-85-1
50%
80-80
TTL
52%
81-74-6
53%
81-73-5
46%
72-83-6
54%
83-72-5
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