PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
66-71 | Road
6
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
68-69 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Lake Bachar
#71 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Leahy
#62 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Bachar | 1-3 | 3.70 | 1.11 | 73.0 | 75 |
| Kyle Leahy | 10-4 | 3.13 | 1.30 | 126.1 | 115 |
1-3
W-L
10-4
3.70
ERA
Ldr 3.13
1.11 Ldr
WHIP
1.30
73.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 126.1
75
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 115
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
47%
CARDINALS
53%
PIRATES
47%
Book Odds: +111
CARDINALS
54%
Book Odds: -119
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.7
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.3 (Under)
Over 8.0
40%
Under 8.0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.3
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT +0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1-2 runs
17.9%
PIT By 3-4 runs
12.7%
STL By 1-2 runs
18.9%
STL By 3-4 runs
14.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.20
St. Louis
3.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.20
St. Louis
2
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Loss
53% Win Prob
C
Sim
Pirates
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.3
C
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u8.0
Push
Proj Total: 6.7
C
Sim
u8.0
Push
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
STL @ PIT
1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026
STL @ PIT
5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
STL @ PIT
0 - 2
Aug 30, 2026
PIT @ STL
5 - 4
Aug 29, 2026
PIT @ STL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.734
▲
OPS
.691
186
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+90.0% more
St. Louis: 1.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+84.8% more
St. Louis: 14.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.6
Hits (L5)
+47.3% more
St. Louis: 8.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 6.0
Errors (L5)
+91.2% more
Pittsburgh: 1.4
vs
St. Louis: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.2
6
STL Score
3.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 1.4
1.0 / 3.0
Hits
8.8 / 6.0
3.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.4
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 9.2
7.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
14.0 / 7.6
7.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.1 / 3.0
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -119 / -101
→
+111 / -119
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
8
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
PIT
STL
PIT
ML
53%
85-74
52%
82-77
52%
84-77
52%
85-78
ATS
56%
89-70
54%
86-73
53%
85-76
50%
81-82
TTL
46%
68-81-10
47%
72-81-6
50%
76-75-10
50%
79-78-6
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