CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
72-63 | Road
3
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
64-72 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Erick Fedde
#47 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bailey Ober
#17 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erick Fedde | 6-8 | 4.18 | 1.39 | 118.1 | 84 |
| Bailey Ober | 7-4 | 4.49 | 1.26 | 108.1 | 74 |
6-8
W-L
7-4
4.18 Ldr
ERA
4.49
1.39
WHIP
Ldr 1.26
118.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
108.1
84 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
74
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
55%
TWINS
45%
▲ Edge: +5.70% (CHW)
WHITE SOX
50%
Book Odds: +101
TWINS
52%
Book Odds: -108
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.7 (Over)
Over 9.0
57%
Under 9.0
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.5
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN +0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.1%
CHW By 3-4 runs
15.0%
MIN By 1-2 runs
17.5%
MIN By 3-4 runs
12.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
5.1
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
Minnesota
4.6
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
Minnesota
6
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
White Sox
Win
55% Win Prob
C
Sim
Twins
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.5
B
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.7
C
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
MIN @ CHW
1 - 10
Sep 5, 2026
MIN @ CHW
6 - 4
Sep 4, 2026
MIN @ CHW
1 - 4
Aug 30, 2026
CHW @ MIN
1 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
CHW @ MIN
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Minnesota
MIN
1
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.826
▲
OPS
.720
1
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+71.1% more
Chicago: 6.1
vs
Minnesota: 1.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+24.0% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Minnesota: 4.6
OPS (Season)
+10.6%
Chicago: 82.6%
vs
Minnesota: 72.0%
Hits (L5)
+10.5% more
Chicago: 10.5
vs
Minnesota: 9.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
5.1
3
MIN Score
4.6
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.4 / 10.5
5.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.3
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 7.4
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
15.7 / 17.2
7.0 / 7.0
Walks
1.8 / 6.1
2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -103 / -117
→
+101 / -108
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
CHW
MIN
CHW
ML
52%
84-78
49%
81-86
50%
80-81
56%
94-73
ATS
59%
95-67
59%
99-68
59%
95-66
56%
93-74
TTL
51%
78-75-9
58%
96-69-2
53%
80-72-9
51%
84-81-2
Contextual Game News
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