Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Elche vs Barcelona Elche vs Barcelona

ELCHEELCHE

1-2-4  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sun, Aug 23 • 3:30 PM ET
Estadio Martínez Valero

BARCELONABARCELONA

7-0-0  |  Away

5
AI Model Win Probability
ELCHE
18%
DRAW
21%
BARCELONA
61%
▲ Edge: +28.90% (Elche)
11% Book Odds: +775
DRAW 18% Book Odds: +455
73% Book Odds: -275
Book Implied: 11.40% / 18% / 73.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.25
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 3.25 45%
Under 3.25 55%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
ELCHE
Book Goal Line
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Elche)
ElcheElche (+1.5) 0 BarcelonaBarcelona (-1.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

45.6% / 54.4%

Shots (On Goal)

7(2) / 11(7)

Corners

3 / 1

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 0/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Elche +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Elche)

Elche By 1 goal

11.1%

Elche By 2+ goals

4.8%

Barcelona By 1 goal

26.1%

Barcelona By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
ELCHE
Book Implied: 0.90
2
BARCELONA
Book Implied: 2.40
Simulated Score
1
ELCHE
Book Implied: 0.90
3
BARCELONA
Book Implied: 2.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Barcelona Win
60% Win Prob
A
Sim Barcelona Win
83% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Elche (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
A
Sim Barcelona (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.25 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Sim o3.3 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 Elche vs Barcelona 0 - 5
Jan 31, 2026 Elche vs Barcelona 1 - 3
Nov 2, 2025 Barcelona vs Elche 3 - 1
Apr 1, 2023 Elche vs Barcelona 0 - 4
Sep 17, 2022 Barcelona vs Elche 3 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +85.7% more
Barcelona: 13.0 vs Elche: 7.0
Wins (L5) +50.0% more
Barcelona: 3.0 vs Elche: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +125.0% more
Elche: 4.0 vs Barcelona: 9.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Elche: 2.0 vs Barcelona: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Barcelona Score 2.0 5
Elche Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Elche (Home) vs Barcelona (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Elche Share: 33.3% Barcelona Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Elche
Barcelona
Elche
Barcelona
ML
43% 3-4
100% 7-0
43% 3-4
100% 7-0
ATS
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
86% 6-1
TTL
43% 3-4
14% 1-6
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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