Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Atlético vs Villarreal Atlético vs Villarreal

ATLÉTICOATLÉTICO

5-1-1  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sun, Aug 23 • 11:00 AM ET
Riyadh Air Metropolitano

VILLARREALVILLARREAL

2-2-3  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
ATLÉTICO
35%
DRAW
31%
VILLARREAL
35%
▲ Edge: +27.50% (Villarreal)
55% Book Odds: -122
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +292
23% Book Odds: +344
Book Implied: 55% / 25.50% / 22.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 45%
Under 2.75 55%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
VILLARREAL
Book Goal Line
+0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Villarreal)
AtléticoAtlético (-0.8) 0 VillarrealVillarreal (+0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

52.0% / 48.0%

Shots (On Goal)

19(4) / 13(6)

Corners

5 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

3/1 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Villarreal 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Villarreal)

Atlético Madrid By 1 goal

21.1%

Atlético Madrid By 2+ goals

15.9%

Villarreal By 1 goal

21.1%

Villarreal By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
ATLÉTICO
Book Implied: 1.80
1
VILLARREAL
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
ATLÉTICO
Book Implied: 1.80
1
VILLARREAL
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Draw Win
47% Win Prob
B
Sim Atlético Madrid Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Villarreal (+0.75) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
B
Sim Atlético Madrid (-0.75) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
B
Sim o2.8 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 Atlético vs Villarreal 2 - 2
Sep 13, 2025 Atlético vs Villarreal 2 - 0
Jan 25, 2025 Atlético vs Villarreal 1 - 1
Aug 19, 2024 Villarreal vs Atlético 2 - 2
Apr 1, 2024 Villarreal vs Atlético 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Villarreal: 1.0 vs Atlético: 0.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Villarreal: 1.0 vs Atlético: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +20.0% more
Villarreal: 12.0 vs Atlético: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Villarreal Score 1.0 2
Atlético Madrid Score 1.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Atlético Madrid (Home) vs Villarreal (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Atlético Madrid Share: 50.0% Villarreal Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Atlético Madrid
Villarreal
Atlético Madrid
Villarreal
ML
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
29% 2-5
ATS
43% 3-4
86% 6-1
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
TTL
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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