BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
66-69 | Road
4
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
53-82 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Young
#63 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Lopez
#57 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Young | 9-3 | 3.50 | 1.36 | 123.1 | 99 |
| Jacob Lopez | 5-4 | 4.98 | 1.48 | 94.0 | 90 |
9-3
W-L
5-4
3.50 Ldr
ERA
4.98
1.36 Ldr
WHIP
1.48
123.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
94.0
99 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
90
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
66%
ATHLETICS
34%
▲ Edge: +14% (BAL)
ORIOLES
52%
Book Odds: -108
ATHLETICS
50%
Book Odds: +101
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 9.5
47%
Under 9.5
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
18.1%
ATH By 1-2 runs
14.1%
ATH By 3-4 runs
8.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
5.5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 5.50
Athletics
3.7
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 5.50
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Orioles
Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim
Orioles
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim
Orioles (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
BAL @ ATH
8 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
BAL @ ATH
5 - 3
Aug 28, 2026
BAL @ ATH
4 - 3
May 10, 2026
ATH @ BAL
1 - 2
May 9, 2026
ATH @ BAL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Athletics
ATH
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.711
OPS
▲
.719
199
▲
Home Runs
194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+38.4% more
Baltimore: 1.5
vs
Athletics: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+15.1% more
Baltimore: 9.7
vs
Athletics: 8.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.4% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Athletics: 4.3
Home Runs (Season)
+2.5% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Athletics: 194.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
5.5
4
ATH Score
3.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.0
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.9 / 9.2
9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.5
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 9.7
12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
15.9 / 16.2
12.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.3
6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -146 / +121
→
-108 / +101
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5
→
9.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
BAL
ATH
BAL
ML
59%
95-67
53%
83-73
54%
87-74
57%
90-69
ATS
52%
84-78
61%
95-60-1
50%
81-80
57%
90-68-1
TTL
54%
84-73-5
54%
81-70-5
42%
66-90-5
51%
78-75-6
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