PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
75-60 | Road
5
LOS ANGELES
ANGELSLAA
52-83 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Painter
#24 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Reid Detmers
#48 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Painter | 3-8 | 6.04 | 1.48 | 92.1 | 79 |
| Reid Detmers | 4-8 | 3.62 | 1.06 | 149.0 | 172 |
3-8
W-L
4-8
6.04
ERA
Ldr 3.62
1.48
WHIP
Ldr 1.06
92.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 149.0
79
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 172
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
46%
ANGELS
54%
▲ Edge: +5.90% (LAA)
PHILLIES
53%
Book Odds: -114
ANGELS
49%
Book Odds: +106
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.8 (Over)
Over 7.5
62%
Under 7.5
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)
PHI By 1-2 runs
17.5%
PHI By 3-4 runs
12.1%
LAA By 1-2 runs
19.1%
LAA By 3-4 runs
15.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4.4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.50
Los Angeles
4.9
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.50
Los Angeles
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Angels
Loss
54% Win Prob
C
Sim
Angels
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Angels (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
A
Sim
Angels (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.3
C
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
PHI @ LAA
5 - 2
Aug 29, 2026
PHI @ LAA
4 - 2
Aug 28, 2026
PHI @ LAA
5 - 3
Jul 20, 2025
LAA @ PHI
8 - 2
Jul 19, 2025
LAA @ PHI
5 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Los Angeles
LAA
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.04
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.724
▲
OPS
.679
3
Home Runs
▲
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+5033.3% more
Los Angeles: 154.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Walks (L5)
+58.8% more
Los Angeles: 5.2
vs
Philadelphia: 3.3
Errors (L5)
+31.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.6
vs
Philadelphia: 0.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+15.4% more
Los Angeles: 4.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.4
5
LAA Score
4.9
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.7 / 8.7
3.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.1
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 8.6
9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
10.9 / 14.0
3.0 / 14.0
Walks
5.2 / 3.3
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -146 / +121
→
-114 / +106
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0
(38.3%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
LAA
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
PHI
LAA
PHI
ML
59%
96-66
59%
97-67
55%
89-73
49%
80-84
ATS
60%
97-65
65%
107-57
51%
82-80
51%
83-81
TTL
53%
83-74-5
57%
88-67-9
52%
82-75-5
51%
78-76-9
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