PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
65-71 | Road
1
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
68-68 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jared Jones
#17 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Quinn Mathews
#60 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Jones | 2-5 | 4.76 | 1.25 | 68.0 | 77 |
| Quinn Mathews | 0-2 | 6.43 | 1.79 | 14.0 | 13 |
2-5
W-L
0-2
4.76 Ldr
ERA
6.43
1.25 Ldr
WHIP
1.79
68.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
14.0
77 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
13
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
55%
CARDINALS
45%
▲ Edge: +2.80% (PIT)
PIRATES
53%
Book Odds: -111
CARDINALS
49%
Book Odds: +103
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.6 (Over)
Over 7.5
66%
Under 7.5
34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL +0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.1%
PIT By 3-4 runs
15.0%
STL By 1-2 runs
17.5%
STL By 3-4 runs
12.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
4.8
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.50
St. Louis
4.3
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.50
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pirates
Loss
55% Win Prob
C
Sim
Cardinals
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.5
C
Sim
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.1
C
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
STL @ PIT
1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026
STL @ PIT
5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
STL @ PIT
0 - 2
Aug 30, 2026
PIT @ STL
5 - 4
Aug 29, 2026
PIT @ STL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.734
▲
OPS
.691
186
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+38.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.6
vs
St. Louis: 0.2
Walks (L5)
+26.5% more
Pittsburgh: 3.6
vs
St. Louis: 2.6
Home Runs (Season)
+10.2% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
St. Louis: 167.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.1% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
St. Louis: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.8
1
STL Score
4.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.6
0.0 / 3.0
Hits
9.2 / 5.9
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 8.3
8.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
14.5 / 8.4
13.0 / 6.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.6
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -110 / -110
→
-111 / +103
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
PIT
STL
PIT
ML
53%
85-74
52%
82-77
52%
84-77
52%
85-78
ATS
56%
89-70
54%
86-73
53%
85-76
50%
81-82
TTL
46%
68-81-10
47%
72-81-6
50%
76-75-10
50%
79-78-6
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