CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
71-63 | Road
7
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
64-71 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Luis Castillo
#58 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dean Kremer
#13 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo | 4-10 | 5.19 | 1.42 | 118.0 | 105 |
| Dean Kremer | 2-4 | 5.22 | 1.18 | 58.2 | 58 |
4-10
W-L
2-4
5.19 Ldr
ERA
5.22
1.42
WHIP
Ldr 1.18
118.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
58.2
105 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
58
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
49%
TWINS
51%
▲ Edge: +3.30% (CHW)
WHITE SOX
46%
Book Odds: +119
TWINS
56%
Book Odds: -127
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 9.0
56%
Under 9.0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
CHW By 1-2 runs
18.3%
CHW By 3-4 runs
13.3%
MIN By 1-2 runs
18.6%
MIN By 3-4 runs
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.7
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.80
Minnesota
4.8
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.80
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Twins
Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
White Sox
Win
61% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
White Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim
White Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
MIN @ CHW
1 - 10
Sep 5, 2026
MIN @ CHW
6 - 4
Sep 4, 2026
MIN @ CHW
1 - 4
Aug 30, 2026
CHW @ MIN
1 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
CHW @ MIN
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Minnesota
MIN
1
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.826
▲
OPS
.720
1
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+18600.0% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+15.6% more
Minnesota: 8.7
vs
Chicago: 7.6
Errors (L5)
+12.0% more
Minnesota: 0.2
vs
Chicago: 0.1
Walks (L5)
+75.3% more
Chicago: 6.7
vs
Minnesota: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
4.7
7
MIN Score
4.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.1 / 10.8
12.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.5
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 7.6
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
14.1 / 17.8
19.0 / 16.0
Walks
1.7 / 6.7
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -112
→
+119 / -127
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
CHW
MIN
CHW
ML
52%
84-78
49%
81-86
50%
80-81
56%
94-73
ATS
59%
95-67
59%
99-68
59%
95-66
56%
93-74
TTL
51%
78-75-9
58%
96-69-2
53%
80-72-9
51%
84-81-2
Contextual Game News
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