Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Blue Jays SEA @ TOR

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

64-71  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Aug 28 • 7:15 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

66-70  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Emerson Hancock
STARTING PITCHER

Emerson Hancock

#26 | Starting Pitcher
@
Dylan Cease
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Cease

#84 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Emerson Hancock 7-7 3.37 1.12 133.2 125
Dylan Cease 8-5 2.37 1.06 144.1 209
7-7 W-L 8-5
3.37 ERA Ldr 2.37
1.12 WHIP Ldr 1.06
133.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 144.1
125 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 209
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
42%
📊
BLUE JAYS
58%
MARINERS 43% Book Odds: +131
BLUE JAYS 59% Book Odds: -141
Book Implied: 43.30% / 58.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 (Over)
Over 7.0 59%
Under 7.0 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.9
SEATTLE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Seattle)
MarinersSEA (+1.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (-1.5)
Seattle Mariners (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

58.9%

Blue Jays Cover

41.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA +0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

SEA By 1-2 runs

16.6%

SEA By 3-4 runs

10.9%

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.5%

TOR By 3-4 runs

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.4
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 2.80
4.3
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
2
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 2.80
5
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Blue Jays Win
58% Win Prob
B
Sim Blue Jays Win
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mariners (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +0.9
C
Sim Blue Jays (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.7
C
Sim o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2026 SEA @ TOR 0 - 7
Aug 29, 2026 SEA @ TOR 3 - 4
Aug 28, 2026 SEA @ TOR 1 - 8
Jul 5, 2026 TOR @ SEA 0 - 4
Jul 4, 2026 TOR @ SEA 0 - 11
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Toronto TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.10 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .381
.693 ▲
OPS
.692
182 ▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +50.8% more
Toronto: 8.3 vs Seattle: 5.5
Walks (L5) +33.2% more
Toronto: 3.7 vs Seattle: 2.7
Total Bases (L5) +32.5% more
Toronto: 12.8 vs Seattle: 9.7
Errors (L5) +23.0% more
Toronto: 0.5 vs Seattle: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 3.4 1
TOR Score 4.3 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.3 / 5.5 12.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.3 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 10.4 9.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 12.8 / 9.7 23.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.7 / 2.7 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +142 / -173 → +131 / -141 ↓
22%TICKETS78%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
21%TICKETS79%
10%MONEY90%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7 ↓
79%TICKETS21%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
TOR Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
SEA
TOR
SEA
ML
46% 74-87
50% 81-81
50% 80-80
52% 85-77
ATS
56% 90-71
60% 98-64
49% 79-81
59% 95-67
TTL
51% 80-76-5
56% 85-67-10
45% 70-85-5
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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