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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

52-83  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Aug 28 • 7:15 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

80-55  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Tomoyuki Sugano
STARTING PITCHER

Tomoyuki Sugano

#11 | Starting Pitcher
@
Grant Holmes
STARTING PITCHER

Grant Holmes

#66 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tomoyuki Sugano 12-7 4.96 1.32 121.2 71
Grant Holmes 8-5 3.64 1.32 123.2 100
12-7 W-L 8-5
4.96 ERA Ldr 3.64
1.32 WHIP 1.32
121.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 123.2
71 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 100
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
51%
📊
BRAVES
49%
▲ Edge: +17.90% (COL)
ROCKIES 33% Book Odds: +200
BRAVES 68% Book Odds: -216
Book Implied: 33.30% / 68.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.7 (Under)
Over 9.0 43%
Under 9.0 57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Colorado)
RockiesCOL (+1.5) 0 BravesATL (-1.5)
Colorado Rockies (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

51.0%

Braves Cover

49.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

COL By 1-2 runs

18.6%

COL By 3-4 runs

13.9%

ATL By 1-2 runs

18.3%

ATL By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.2
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.80
4.1
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
3
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.80
5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockies Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Braves Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockies (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim Braves (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2026 COL @ ATL 2 - 3
Aug 29, 2026 COL @ ATL 1 - 2
Aug 28, 2026 COL @ ATL 4 - 6
May 3, 2026 ATL @ COL 11 - 6
May 2, 2026 ATL @ COL 9 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Atlanta ATL
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.64
Runs / Game
▲ 5.00
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.322
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .324
.417
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .433
.739
OPS
▲ .757
180 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.4% more
Colorado: 180.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Walks (L5) +44.1% more
Colorado: 5.2 vs Atlanta: 2.9
Home Runs (L5) +34.1% more
Colorado: 1.4 vs Atlanta: 0.9
Errors (L5) +12.0% more
Colorado: 0.3 vs Atlanta: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 4.2 4
ATL Score 4.1 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.3 / 8.2 14.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.4 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 7.8 6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 12.5 / 13.6 20.0 / 13.0
Walks 2.9 / 5.2 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +184 / -226 → +200 / -216 ↓
6%TICKETS94%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
8%TICKETS92%
5%MONEY95%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 9 ↑
76%TICKETS24%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
COL
ATL
COL
ML
46% 77-90
60% 97-64
54% 90-78
55% 88-73
ATS
57% 96-71
60% 97-64
52% 87-81
52% 83-78
TTL
53% 83-73-11
60% 93-62-6
49% 76-80-11
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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