Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Rays SD @ TB

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

72-63  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Aug 28 • 7:10 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

80-54  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Casey Mize
STARTING PITCHER

Casey Mize

#32 | Starting Pitcher
@
Shane McClanahan
STARTING PITCHER

Shane McClanahan

#18 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Casey Mize 5-7 3.44 1.09 104.2 95
Shane McClanahan 9-6 3.10 1.12 107.1 99
5-7 W-L 9-6
3.44 ERA Ldr 3.10
1.09 Ldr WHIP 1.12
104.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 107.1
95 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 99
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
54%
📊
RAYS
46%
▲ Edge: +6.20% (SD)
PADRES 47% Book Odds: +111
RAYS 54% Book Odds: -119
Book Implied: 47.40% / 54.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 (Over)
Over 7.5 58%
Under 7.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (San Diego)
PadresSD (+1.5) 0 RaysTB (-1.5)
San Diego Padres (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

54.0%

Rays Cover

46.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SD By 1-2 runs

19.0%

SD By 3-4 runs

14.7%

TB By 1-2 runs

17.7%

TB By 3-4 runs

12.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.3
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 3
3.9
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 3
3
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Loss
54% Win Prob
C
Sim Padres Loss
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Padres (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
B
Sim Padres (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.2
C
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2026 SD @ TB 4 - 5
Aug 29, 2026 SD @ TB 6 - 7
Aug 28, 2026 SD @ TB 4 - 9
Apr 27, 2025 TB @ SD 4 - 2
Apr 26, 2025 TB @ SD 4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Tampa Bay TB
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.258
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.925 ▲
OPS
.728
4
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +47.6% more
San Diego: 3.7 vs Tampa Bay: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +24.3% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Tampa Bay: 4.5
Home Runs (L5) +20.0% more
San Diego: 0.5 vs Tampa Bay: 0.3
OPS (Season) +19.7%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Tampa Bay: 72.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 4.3 4
TB Score 3.9 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.1 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.4 / 6.6 11.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 0.5 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 8.1 6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 9.8 / 10.5 18.0 / 7.0
Walks 2.0 / 3.7 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +109 / -132 → +111 / -119 ↓
28%TICKETS72%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
13%TICKETS87%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
68%TICKETS32%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
SD
TB
SD
ML
58% 95-68
51% 85-83
58% 95-68
51% 85-82
ATS
60% 97-66
54% 91-77
55% 90-73
55% 92-75
TTL
47% 73-81-9
51% 82-80-6
51% 78-75-10
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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