KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
61-75 | Road
3
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
68-67 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Wacha
#52 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tanner Bibee
#28 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha | 7-8 | 3.49 | 1.13 | 162.2 | 126 |
| Tanner Bibee | 5-13 | 3.97 | 1.14 | 156.1 | 123 |
7-8
W-L
5-13
3.49 Ldr
ERA
3.97
1.13 Ldr
WHIP
1.14
162.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
156.1
126 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
123
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
53%
GUARDIANS
47%
▲ Edge: +7.50% (KC)
ROYALS
46%
Book Odds: +120
GUARDIANS
56%
Book Odds: -129
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.4
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.1 (Under)
Over 7.5
42%
Under 7.5
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
KC By 1-2 runs
19.0%
KC By 3-4 runs
14.7%
CLE By 1-2 runs
17.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
12.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
3.4
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Royals
Win
53% Win Prob
C
Sim
Guardians
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
A
Sim
Guardians (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.4
C
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
CLE @ KC
2 - 3
Sep 26, 2026
CLE @ KC
11 - 5
Sep 25, 2026
CLE @ KC
12 - 9
Aug 30, 2026
KC @ CLE
1 - 11
Aug 29, 2026
KC @ CLE
8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.26
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.316
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.718
▲
OPS
.696
170
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+78.6% more
Kansas City: 1.5
vs
Cleveland: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+18.7% more
Kansas City: 17.8
vs
Cleveland: 14.5
Walks (L5)
+11.6% more
Kansas City: 3.4
vs
Cleveland: 3.0
Home Runs (Season)
+4.7% more
Kansas City: 170.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
3.4
3
CLE Score
3.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.1 / 11.0
6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.3 / 1.5
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 5.5
9.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
14.5 / 17.8
6.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.0 / 3.4
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +115 / -138
→
+120 / -129
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
KC
CLE
KC
ML
54%
87-74
55%
89-72
49%
80-82
56%
90-70
ATS
58%
93-68
57%
91-70
59%
95-67
58%
93-67
TTL
55%
88-71-2
58%
90-64-7
43%
69-90-2
54%
83-70-7
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