MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
68-67 | Road
2
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
64-73 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Eury Perez
#39 | Starting Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Jackson Kent
#25 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eury Perez | 7-9 | 3.17 | 1.11 | 127.2 | 137 |
| Jackson Kent | 0-2 | 8.03 | 2.11 | 12.1 | 14 |
7-9
W-L
0-2
3.17 Ldr
ERA
8.03
1.11 Ldr
WHIP
2.11
127.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
12.1
137 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
14
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
67%
NATIONALS
33%
▲ Edge: +10% (MIA)
MARLINS
57%
Book Odds: -134
NATIONALS
44%
Book Odds: +125
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.8 (Over)
Over 8.5
67%
Under 8.5
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
MIAMI
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
18.3%
WSH By 1-2 runs
13.9%
WSH By 3-4 runs
8.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
6.1
MIAMI
Book Implied: 5
Washington
4.2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Book Implied: 5
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Loss
67% Win Prob
A
Sim
Nationals
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.9
C
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.3
B
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 31, 2026
MIA @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
MIA @ WSH
6 - 2
Aug 29, 2026
MIA @ WSH
4 - 5
Aug 28, 2026
MIA @ WSH
2 - 9
Aug 23, 2026
WSH @ MIA
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.727
OPS
▲
.744
168
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+16.0% more
Miami: 0.2
vs
Washington: 0.0
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.5%
Miami: 32.6%
vs
Washington: 32.1%
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.3%
Miami: 24.9%
vs
Washington: 24.6%
Home Runs (L5)
+76.0% more
Washington: 1.2
vs
Miami: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
6.1
2
WSH Score
4.2
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.0 / 8.4
7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.5
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 7.6
8.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 11.2
17.0 / 9.0
Walks
5.1 / 4.4
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -136 / +113
→
-134 / +125
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIA
WSH
MIA
ML
57%
92-69
48%
78-84
54%
87-74
55%
88-72
ATS
58%
93-68
56%
91-71
57%
91-70
54%
86-74
TTL
50%
77-78-6
56%
88-69-5
42%
65-90-6
53%
82-73-5
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