CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
64-71 | Road
10
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
76-59 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Rhett Lowder
#25 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
David Peterson
#19 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhett Lowder | 5-8 | 5.13 | 1.47 | 107.0 | 83 |
| David Peterson | 7-7 | 5.17 | 1.50 | 118.1 | 103 |
5-8
W-L
7-7
5.13 Ldr
ERA
5.17
1.47 Ldr
WHIP
1.50
107.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 118.1
83
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 103
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
33%
CUBS
67%
▲ Edge: +1.10% (CHC)
REDS
36%
Book Odds: +179
CUBS
66%
Book Odds: -193
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.7
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.7 (Over)
Over 9.0
70%
Under 9.0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
CHICAGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
CIN By 1-2 runs
13.9%
CIN By 3-4 runs
8.1%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
18.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4.4
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.80
Chicago
6.3
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.80
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Loss
67% Win Prob
A
Sim
Cubs
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.9
D
Sim
Cubs (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.7
A
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
CHC @ CIN
9 - 1
Sep 19, 2026
CHC @ CIN
5 - 2
Sep 18, 2026
CHC @ CIN
4 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
CIN @ CHC
7 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
CIN @ CHC
5 - 17
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.11
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.229
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.305
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.394
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.699
▲
OPS
.374
213
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+14.0% more
Chicago: 3.9
vs
Cincinnati: 3.4
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+87.8% more
Cincinnati: 4.1
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+32.5%
Cincinnati: 69.9%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.4
10
CHC Score
6.3
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 9.2
13.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.6
2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 8.8
10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 15.1
23.0 / 25.0
Walks
3.9 / 3.4
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +163 / -199
→
+179 / -193
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
CIN
CHC
CIN
ML
58%
93-68
55%
88-71
51%
82-79
49%
79-81
ATS
61%
97-63-1
54%
86-73
47%
75-85-1
50%
80-80
TTL
52%
81-74-6
53%
81-73-5
46%
72-83-6
54%
83-72-5
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