LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
80-54 | Road
0
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
79-55 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
#18 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Chris Sale
#51 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 12-7 | 2.61 | 0.90 | 151.2 | 145 |
| Chris Sale | 12-9 | 2.20 | 1.03 | 135.0 | 166 |
12-7
W-L
12-9
2.61
ERA
Ldr 2.20
0.90 Ldr
WHIP
1.03
151.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
135.0
145
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 166
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
59%
BRAVES
41%
▲ Edge: +10.40% (LAD)
DODGERS
48%
Book Odds: +107
BRAVES
54%
Book Odds: -115
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.6 (Over)
Over 6.5
57%
Under 6.5
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)
LAD By 1-2 runs
19.5%
LAD By 3-4 runs
16.1%
ATL By 1-2 runs
16.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
10.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
4
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 2.50
Atlanta
3.1
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
3
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 2.50
Atlanta
2
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Dodgers
Loss
59% Win Prob
B
Sim
Dodgers
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Dodgers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
A
Sim
Dodgers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.1
C
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
LAD @ ATL
4 - 1
Oct 6, 2026
LAD @ ATL
3 - 1
Oct 4, 2026
ATL @ LAD
3 - 2
Oct 3, 2026
ATL @ LAD
3 - 5
Aug 27, 2026
LAD @ ATL
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles
LAD
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.94
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.257
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.338
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.424
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.762
▲
OPS
.757
204
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.5% more
Los Angeles: 204.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+15.1% more
Los Angeles: 4.6
vs
Atlanta: 3.9
Batting Avg (Season)
+2.4%
Los Angeles: 25.7%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+1.4%
Los Angeles: 33.8%
vs
Atlanta: 32.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAD Score
4.0
0
ATL Score
3.1
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.5 / 8.8
4.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 7.9
11.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
15.3 / 12.8
7.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.9 / 4.6
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -130 / +108
→
+107 / -115
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
6.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
LAD
ATL
LAD
ML
46%
77-90
56%
92-73
54%
90-78
48%
79-87
ATS
57%
96-71
59%
98-67
52%
87-81
43%
72-94
TTL
53%
83-73-11
48%
77-82-6
49%
76-80-11
44%
70-90-6
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