KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
60-75 | Road
13
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
65-70 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Noah Cameron
#65 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Spencer Arrighetti
#45 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Cameron | 8-8 | 4.02 | 1.21 | 143.1 | 128 |
| Spencer Arrighetti | 7-6 | 4.73 | 1.35 | 91.1 | 91 |
8-8
W-L
7-6
4.02 Ldr
ERA
4.73
1.21 Ldr
WHIP
1.35
143.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
91.1
128 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
91
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
46%
BLUE JAYS
54%
▲ Edge: +3.40% (TOR)
ROYALS
51%
Book Odds: -105
BLUE JAYS
51%
Book Odds: -102
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 8.5
42%
Under 8.5
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
TORONTO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
KC By 1-2 runs
17.5%
KC By 3-4 runs
12.1%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.1%
TOR By 3-4 runs
15.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
3.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 5
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 5
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
54% Win Prob
C
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.5
C
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
TOR @ KC
1 - 6
Sep 5, 2026
TOR @ KC
4 - 3
Sep 4, 2026
TOR @ KC
9 - 2
Aug 27, 2026
KC @ TOR
13 - 2
Aug 26, 2026
KC @ TOR
0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.26
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
.247
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.718
▲
OPS
.692
170
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+20.4% more
Toronto: 8.1
vs
Kansas City: 6.8
Walks (L5)
+32.5% more
Kansas City: 3.7
vs
Toronto: 2.5
Home Runs (L5)
+15.0% more
Kansas City: 0.8
vs
Toronto: 0.7
Home Runs (Season)
+10.6% more
Kansas City: 170.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
3.5
13
TOR Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 8.5
8.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.8
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 6.8
9.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
12.7 / 12.2
13.0 / 29.0
Walks
2.5 / 3.7
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +118 / -142
→
-105 / -102
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
KC
TOR
KC
ML
46%
74-87
55%
89-72
50%
80-80
56%
90-70
ATS
56%
90-71
57%
91-70
49%
79-81
58%
93-67
TTL
51%
80-76-5
58%
90-64-7
45%
70-85-5
54%
83-70-7
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