BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
65-69 | Road
5
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
67-68 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Rogers
#28 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gordon Graceffo
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers | 9-8 | 4.14 | 1.24 | 132.2 | 114 |
| Gordon Graceffo | 7-1 | 3.13 | 1.12 | 63.1 | 38 |
9-8
W-L
7-1
4.14
ERA
Ldr 3.13
1.24
WHIP
Ldr 1.12
132.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
63.1
114 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
38
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
50%
CARDINALS
50%
▲ Edge: +4% (STL)
ORIOLES
55%
Book Odds: -124
CARDINALS
46%
Book Odds: +116
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 8.0
47%
Under 8.0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
18.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
13.9%
STL By 1-2 runs
18.3%
STL By 3-4 runs
13.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
3.9
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 4.80
St. Louis
3.8
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 4.80
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.1
C
Sim
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 27, 2026
BAL @ STL
5 - 7
Aug 26, 2026
BAL @ STL
8 - 7
Aug 25, 2026
BAL @ STL
13 - 1
May 28, 2025
STL @ BAL
6 - 4
May 27, 2025
STL @ BAL
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
St. Louis
STL
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.711
▲
OPS
.691
199
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+36.1% more
Baltimore: 1.7
vs
St. Louis: 1.1
Total Bases (L5)
+23.0% more
Baltimore: 17.9
vs
St. Louis: 13.8
Home Runs (Season)
+16.1% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
St. Louis: 167.0
Hits (L5)
+10.5% more
Baltimore: 10.4
vs
St. Louis: 9.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
3.9
5
STL Score
3.8
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.3 / 10.4
9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.7
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 8.1
11.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 17.9
16.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.9 / 1.9
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -112
→
-124 / +116
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
BAL
STL
BAL
ML
53%
85-74
53%
83-73
52%
84-77
57%
90-69
ATS
56%
89-70
61%
95-60-1
53%
85-76
57%
90-68-1
TTL
46%
68-81-10
54%
81-70-5
50%
76-75-10
51%
78-75-6
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