COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
52-82 | Road
1
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
63-73 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gabriel Hughes
#43 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jake Irvin
#27 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Hughes | 0-5 | 6.54 | 1.36 | 42.2 | 35 |
| Jake Irvin | 2-8 | 5.82 | 1.36 | 77.1 | 76 |
0-5
W-L
2-8
6.54
ERA
Ldr 5.82
1.36
WHIP
1.36
42.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 77.1
35
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 76
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
37%
NATIONALS
63%
▲ Edge: +4.60% (WSH)
ROCKIES
43%
Book Odds: +131
NATIONALS
58%
Book Odds: -140
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.3
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.8 (Over)
Over 9.5
67%
Under 9.5
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.3
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL +1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
COL By 1-2 runs
15.5%
COL By 3-4 runs
9.8%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.7%
WSH By 3-4 runs
17.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
5
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4
Washington
6.3
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 5.50
Simulated Score
Colorado
6
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 5.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Nationals
Win
63% Win Prob
A
Sim
Rockies
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.3
D
Sim
Rockies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.3
B
Sim
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 27, 2026
COL @ WSH
1 - 7
Aug 26, 2026
COL @ WSH
13 - 1
Aug 25, 2026
COL @ WSH
3 - 1
Aug 24, 2026
COL @ WSH
3 - 13
Jul 22, 2026
WSH @ COL
8 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.64
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.254
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.322
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.417
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.739
OPS
▲
.744
180
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16.7% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Colorado: 180.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+9.3% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Colorado: 4.6
Slugging Pct (Season)
+0.6%
Washington: 42.3%
vs
Colorado: 41.7%
OPS (Season)
+0.5%
Washington: 74.4%
vs
Colorado: 73.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
5.0
1
WSH Score
6.3
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 9.7
13.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 2.1
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 8.6
10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.0 / 17.8
22.0 / 5.0
Walks
3.2 / 4.8
9.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +109 / -131
→
+131 / -140
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
COL
WSH
COL
ML
57%
92-69
60%
97-64
54%
87-74
55%
88-73
ATS
58%
93-68
60%
97-64
57%
91-70
52%
83-78
TTL
50%
77-78-6
60%
93-62-6
42%
65-90-6
50%
77-78-6
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