MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
64-70 | Road
4
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
53-81 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Connor Prielipp
#61 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
J.T. Ginn
#35 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Prielipp | 3-7 | 5.57 | 1.40 | 93.2 | 101 |
| J.T. Ginn | 8-8 | 3.60 | 1.23 | 132.1 | 118 |
3-7
W-L
8-8
5.57
ERA
Ldr 3.60
1.40
WHIP
Ldr 1.23
93.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 132.1
101
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 118
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
47%
ATHLETICS
53%
▲ Edge: +7.70% (ATH)
TWINS
56%
Book Odds: -129
ATHLETICS
46%
Book Odds: +120
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
10.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.4 (Under)
Over 10.5
37%
Under 10.5
63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
MIN By 1-2 runs
17.5%
MIN By 3-4 runs
12.1%
ATH By 1-2 runs
19.1%
ATH By 3-4 runs
15.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
4.3
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 6
Athletics
4.8
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Minnesota
6
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 6
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Athletics
Win
53% Win Prob
C
Sim
Twins
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Athletics (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim
Twins (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u10.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.1
C
Sim
u10.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
MIN @ ATH
4 - 7
Aug 25, 2026
MIN @ ATH
2 - 4
Aug 24, 2026
MIN @ ATH
9 - 6
Jul 26, 2026
ATH @ MIN
8 - 11
Jul 25, 2026
ATH @ MIN
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Athletics
ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.245
Avg (AVG)
.245
.317
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720
▲
OPS
.719
187
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+61.6% more
Athletics: 3.2
vs
Minnesota: 2.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+13.8% more
Athletics: 10.4
vs
Minnesota: 9.1
Home Runs (L5)
+11.0% more
Athletics: 0.9
vs
Minnesota: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+9.5% more
Athletics: 13.9
vs
Minnesota: 12.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
4.3
4
ATH Score
4.8
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 8.2
12.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.7
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
10.4 / 9.1
4.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 12.7
20.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.0
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -156 / +129
→
-129 / +120
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5
→
10.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
MIN
ATH
MIN
ML
59%
95-67
52%
84-78
54%
87-74
50%
80-81
ATS
52%
84-78
59%
95-67
50%
81-80
59%
95-66
TTL
54%
84-73-5
51%
78-75-9
42%
66-90-5
53%
80-72-9
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