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LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

80-53  |  Road

5
FINAL
Wed, Aug 26 • 7:15 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

78-55  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Roki Sasaki
STARTING PITCHER

Roki Sasaki

#11 | Starting Pitcher
@
AJ Smith-Shawver
STARTING PITCHER

AJ Smith-Shawver

#32 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Roki Sasaki 5-5 4.42 1.30 116.0 114
AJ Smith-Shawver 0-0 6.23 1.62 8.2 7
5-5 W-L 0-0
4.42 Ldr ERA 6.23
1.30 Ldr WHIP 1.62
116.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 8.2
114 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 7
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
65%
📊
BRAVES
35%
▲ Edge: +11% (LAD)
DODGERS 55% Book Odds: -120
BRAVES 47% Book Odds: +112
Book Implied: 54.50% / 47.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 (Over)
Over 8.5 54%
Under 8.5 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-1.5) 0 BravesATL (+1.5)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

66.5%

Braves Cover

33.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

17.9%

ATL By 1-2 runs

14.4%

ATL By 3-4 runs

8.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5.3
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5
3.6
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5
4
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Loss
65% Win Prob
A
Sim Dodgers Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim Braves (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.9
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 7, 2026 LAD @ ATL 4 - 1
Oct 6, 2026 LAD @ ATL 3 - 1
Oct 4, 2026 ATL @ LAD 3 - 2
Oct 3, 2026 ATL @ LAD 3 - 5
Aug 27, 2026 LAD @ ATL 0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Atlanta ATL
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.94
Runs / Game
▲ 5.00
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.424
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .433
.762 ▲
OPS
.757
204 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.5% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Walks (L5) +39.5% more
Los Angeles: 3.9 vs Atlanta: 2.3
Home Runs (L5) +15.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.4 vs Atlanta: 0.3
Batting Avg (Season) +2.4%
Los Angeles: 25.7% vs Atlanta: 23.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 5.3 5
ATL Score 3.6 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.7 / 8.2 14.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 0.4 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 8.4 6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.9 / 11.1 24.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.3 / 3.9 7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -157 / +130 → -120 / +112 ↑
83%TICKETS17%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
81%TICKETS19%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
51%TICKETS49%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
ATL
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
LAD
ATL
LAD
ML
46% 77-90
56% 92-73
54% 90-78
48% 79-87
ATS
57% 96-71
59% 98-67
52% 87-81
43% 72-94
TTL
53% 83-73-11
48% 77-82-6
49% 76-80-11
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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