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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

59-75  |  Road

0
FINAL
Wed, Aug 26 • 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

65-69  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Randy Dobnak
STARTING PITCHER

Randy Dobnak

#62 | Starting Pitcher
@
Spencer Miles
STARTING PITCHER

Spencer Miles

#62 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Randy Dobnak 2-1 1.58 1.40 45.2 29
Spencer Miles 5-2 3.02 1.10 80.1 73
2-1 W-L 5-2
1.58 Ldr ERA 3.02
1.40 WHIP Ldr 1.10
45.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 80.1
29 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 73
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
48%
📊
BLUE JAYS
52%
▲ Edge: +6.20% (KC)
ROYALS 41% Book Odds: +142
BLUE JAYS 61% Book Odds: -153
Book Implied: 41.30% / 60.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.5 (Under)
Over 8.5 30%
Under 8.5 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.2
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Kansas City)
RoyalsKC (+1.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (-1.5)
Kansas City Royals (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

52.0%

Blue Jays Cover

48.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC +0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-2 runs

18.1%

KC By 3-4 runs

13.0%

TOR By 1-2 runs

18.7%

TOR By 3-4 runs

14.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2.9
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.50
3.1
TORONTO
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.50
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays Win
52% Win Prob
C
Sim Blue Jays Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +0.2
B
Sim Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 TOR @ KC 1 - 6
Sep 5, 2026 TOR @ KC 4 - 3
Sep 4, 2026 TOR @ KC 9 - 2
Aug 27, 2026 KC @ TOR 13 - 2
Aug 26, 2026 KC @ TOR 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Toronto TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
.247
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.718 ▲
OPS
.692
170 ▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +59.5% more
Kansas City: 1.2 vs Toronto: 0.5
Walks (L5) +45.7% more
Kansas City: 5.0 vs Toronto: 2.7
Errors (L5) +15.0% more
Kansas City: 0.6 vs Toronto: 0.4
Home Runs (Season) +10.6% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Toronto: 152.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 2.9 0
TOR Score 3.1 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.7 / 9.8 6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 7.6 9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 14.0 / 14.9 10.0 / 7.0
Walks 2.7 / 5.0 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +109 / -131 → +142 / -153 ↑
35%TICKETS65%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
49%TICKETS51%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
79%TICKETS21%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
KC
TOR
KC
ML
46% 74-87
55% 89-72
50% 80-80
56% 90-70
ATS
56% 90-71
57% 91-70
49% 79-81
58% 93-67
TTL
51% 80-76-5
58% 90-64-7
45% 70-85-5
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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