COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
52-81 | Road
13
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
62-73 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tanner Gordon
#29 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Waldron
#56 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Gordon | 0-4 | 5.75 | 1.49 | 76.2 | 64 |
| Matt Waldron | 1-2 | 7.54 | 1.62 | 37.0 | 31 |
0-4
W-L
1-2
5.75 Ldr
ERA
7.54
1.49 Ldr
WHIP
1.62
76.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
37.0
64 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
31
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
47%
NATIONALS
53%
▲ Edge: +1.70% (COL)
ROCKIES
45%
Book Odds: +121
NATIONALS
56%
Book Odds: -129
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.7
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.7 (Over)
Over 9.0
74%
Under 9.0
26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.3
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL +0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
COL By 1-2 runs
17.9%
COL By 3-4 runs
12.7%
WSH By 1-2 runs
18.9%
WSH By 3-4 runs
14.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
5.7
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.80
Washington
6
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
Colorado
3
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.80
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nationals
Loss
53% Win Prob
C
Sim
Nationals
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.3
C
Sim
Rockies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 11.7
A
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 27, 2026
COL @ WSH
1 - 7
Aug 26, 2026
COL @ WSH
13 - 1
Aug 25, 2026
COL @ WSH
3 - 1
Aug 24, 2026
COL @ WSH
3 - 13
Jul 22, 2026
WSH @ COL
8 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.64
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.254
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.322
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.417
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.739
OPS
▲
.744
180
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+46.6% more
Washington: 4.8
vs
Colorado: 3.2
Home Runs (Season)
+16.7% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Colorado: 180.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+9.3% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Colorado: 4.6
Slugging Pct (Season)
+0.6%
Washington: 42.3%
vs
Colorado: 41.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
5.7
13
WSH Score
6.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 7.1
7.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.1
1.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 9.5
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
11.0 / 12.3
14.0 / 29.0
Walks
4.8 / 3.2
0.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +129 / -156
→
+121 / -129
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
COL
WSH
COL
ML
57%
92-69
60%
97-64
54%
87-74
55%
88-73
ATS
58%
93-68
60%
97-64
57%
91-70
52%
83-78
TTL
50%
77-78-6
60%
93-62-6
42%
65-90-6
50%
77-78-6
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