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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

74-60  |  Road

6
FINAL
Wed, Aug 26 • 4:10 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

64-70  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Jesus Luzardo
STARTING PITCHER

Jesus Luzardo

#44 | Starting Pitcher
@
Bryan Woo
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Woo

#22 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jesus Luzardo 11-5 3.35 1.15 156.0 194
Bryan Woo 9-8 4.10 1.08 138.1 137
11-5 W-L 9-8
3.35 Ldr ERA 4.10
1.15 WHIP Ldr 1.08
156.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 138.1
194 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 137
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
57%
📊
MARINERS
43%
PHILLIES 58% Book Odds: -136
MARINERS 44% Book Odds: +126
Book Implied: 57.60% / 44.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 7.0 72%
Under 7.0 28%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.7
SEATTLE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Seattle)
PhilliesPHI (-1.5) 0 MarinersSEA (+1.5)
Seattle Mariners (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

43.1%

Mariners Cover

56.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA +0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.4%

PHI By 3-4 runs

15.5%

SEA By 1-2 runs

17.0%

SEA By 3-4 runs

11.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.1
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.20
4.4
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 2.80
Simulated Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.20
4
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 2.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Mariners Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mariners (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +0.7
C
Sim Mariners (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.5
A
Sim o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 26, 2026 PHI @ SEA 6 - 0
Aug 25, 2026 PHI @ SEA 1 - 4
Aug 24, 2026 PHI @ SEA 2 - 9
Aug 20, 2025 SEA @ PHI 2 - 11
Aug 19, 2025 SEA @ PHI 4 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Seattle SEA
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.10
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .314
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.724 ▲
OPS
.693
3
Home Runs
▲ 182
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +8.9% more
Philadelphia: 8.0 vs Seattle: 7.3
Slugging Pct (Season) +5.9%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Seattle: 37.9%
OPS (Season) +3.1%
Philadelphia: 72.4% vs Seattle: 69.3%
Batting Avg (Season) +1.4%
Philadelphia: 24.7% vs Seattle: 23.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 5.1 6
SEA Score 4.4 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.3 / 8.0 2.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 0.7 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.6 / 6.9 10.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 13.5 / 11.4 2.0 / 19.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.4 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +100 / -120 → -136 / +126 ↓
66%TICKETS34%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
79%TICKETS21%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 7 ↓
84%TICKETS16%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI Advantage
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
PHI
SEA
PHI
ML
50% 81-81
59% 97-67
52% 85-77
49% 80-84
ATS
60% 98-64
65% 107-57
59% 95-67
51% 83-81
TTL
56% 85-67-10
57% 88-67-9
53% 81-71-10
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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