CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
63-71 | Road
10
SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
54-79 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Lodolo
#40 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Landen Roupp
#65 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Lodolo | 3-3 | 5.04 | 1.52 | 75.0 | 59 |
| Landen Roupp | 7-13 | 4.34 | 1.31 | 134.2 | 130 |
3-3
W-L
7-13
5.04
ERA
Ldr 4.34
1.52
WHIP
Ldr 1.31
75.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 134.2
59
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 130
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
37%
GIANTS
63%
▲ Edge: +9.30% (SF)
REDS
48%
Book Odds: +110
GIANTS
54%
Book Odds: -118
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +3.3 (Over)
Over 7.0
79%
Under 7.0
21%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
CIN By 1-2 runs
15.0%
CIN By 3-4 runs
9.2%
SF By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SF By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4.4
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 4.20
San Francisco
5.9
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 2.80
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 4.20
San Francisco
4
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 2.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Giants
Loss
63% Win Prob
A
Sim
Reds
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Giants (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim
Giants (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.3
A
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
CIN @ SF
10 - 9
Aug 25, 2026
CIN @ SF
1 - 3
Aug 24, 2026
CIN @ SF
0 - 5
Apr 16, 2026
SF @ CIN
3 - 0
Apr 15, 2026
SF @ CIN
3 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
San Francisco
SF
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.13
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.306
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.699
OPS
▲
.706
213
▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+32.2% more
San Francisco: 13.4
vs
Cincinnati: 10.1
Hits (L5)
+32.1% more
San Francisco: 8.2
vs
Cincinnati: 6.2
Home Runs (L5)
+28.0% more
San Francisco: 1.1
vs
Cincinnati: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+16.9% more
San Francisco: 8.3
vs
Cincinnati: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.4
10
SF Score
5.9
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.6
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 6.2
12.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.9
3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 7.1
8.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 10.1
25.0 / 25.0
Walks
2.4 / 3.2
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -105 / -114
→
+110 / -118
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
Advantage
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
SF
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
CIN
SF
CIN
ML
49%
79-81
55%
88-71
53%
85-75
49%
79-81
ATS
62%
100-60
54%
86-73
52%
83-77
50%
80-80
TTL
55%
82-68-10
53%
81-73-5
46%
68-81-11
54%
83-72-5
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