CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
76-58 | Road
0
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
71-63 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matthew Boyd
#16 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Eduardo Rodriguez
#57 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd | 8-2 | 4.15 | 1.24 | 91.0 | 71 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 13-4 | 2.61 | 1.21 | 155.0 | 110 |
8-2
W-L
13-4
4.15
ERA
Ldr 2.61
1.24
WHIP
Ldr 1.21
91.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 155.0
71
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 110
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
61%
DIAMONDBACKS
39%
▲ Edge: +7.50% (CHC)
CUBS
54%
Book Odds: -115
DIAMONDBACKS
48%
Book Odds: +107
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.6
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.1 (Over)
Over 8.5
69%
Under 8.5
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.2
ARIZONA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI +1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
16.8%
ARI By 1-2 runs
15.8%
ARI By 3-4 runs
10.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
5.9
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
Arizona
4.7
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cubs
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.2
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.6
B
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
CHC @ ARI
0 - 2
Aug 25, 2026
CHC @ ARI
4 - 5
Aug 24, 2026
CHC @ ARI
7 - 0
May 3, 2026
ARI @ CHC
4 - 8
May 2, 2026
ARI @ CHC
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Arizona
ARI
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.374
OPS
▲
.720
0
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+63.2% more
Chicago: 2.0
vs
Arizona: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+37.2% more
Chicago: 17.9
vs
Arizona: 11.2
Hits (L5)
+25.6% more
Chicago: 9.4
vs
Arizona: 7.0
Walks (L5)
+19.8% more
Chicago: 3.9
vs
Arizona: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
5.9
0
ARI Score
4.7
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 9.4
6.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 2.0
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 6.2
6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
11.2 / 17.9
9.0 / 3.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.9
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -112 / -108
→
-115 / +107
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
CHC
ARI
CHC
ML
54%
87-74
58%
93-68
54%
86-74
51%
82-79
ATS
57%
91-70
61%
97-63-1
56%
89-71
47%
75-85-1
TTL
52%
80-73-8
52%
81-74-6
49%
73-77-9
46%
72-83-6
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