Home / MLB Projections MLB / Reds @ Giants CIN @ SF

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

62-71  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Aug 25 • 9:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

54-78  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Brady Singer
STARTING PITCHER

Brady Singer

#51 | Starting Pitcher
@
Adrian Houser
STARTING PITCHER

Adrian Houser

#12 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brady Singer 5-11 4.72 1.42 131.2 107
Adrian Houser 4-7 4.08 1.31 108.0 73
5-11 W-L 4-7
4.72 ERA Ldr 4.08
1.42 WHIP Ldr 1.31
131.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 108.0
107 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 73
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
33%
📊
GIANTS
67%
▲ Edge: +16% (SF)
REDS 51% Book Odds: -102
GIANTS 51% Book Odds: -105
Book Implied: 50.50% / 51.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 (Over)
Over 7.5 75%
Under 7.5 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 points (San Francisco)
RedsCIN (-1.5) 0 GiantsSF (+1.5)
San Francisco Giants (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

31.7%

Giants Cover

68.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

CIN By 1-2 runs

13.9%

CIN By 3-4 runs

8.1%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

18.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.2
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 4.50
6.1
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
4
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 4.50
3
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Win
67% Win Prob
A
Sim Reds Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.9
A
Sim Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.3
A
Sim u7.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 26, 2026 CIN @ SF 10 - 9
Aug 25, 2026 CIN @ SF 1 - 3
Aug 24, 2026 CIN @ SF 0 - 5
Apr 16, 2026 SF @ CIN 3 - 0
Apr 15, 2026 SF @ CIN 3 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 4.13
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .306
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.699
OPS
▲ .706
213 ▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +43.0% more
San Francisco: 1.2 vs Cincinnati: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +25.9% more
San Francisco: 14.1 vs Cincinnati: 11.2
Strikeouts (L5) +23.4% more
San Francisco: 9.5 vs Cincinnati: 7.7
Hits (L5) +13.5% more
San Francisco: 8.3 vs Cincinnati: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 4.2 1
SF Score 6.1 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.3 / 7.4 8.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 7.7 6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 14.1 / 11.2 12.0 / 8.0
Walks 2.6 / 3.2 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -112 → -102 / -105 ↓
47%TICKETS53%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
31%TICKETS69%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 7.5 ↓
80%TICKETS20%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN Advantage
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
CIN
SF
CIN
ML
49% 79-81
55% 88-71
53% 85-75
49% 79-81
ATS
62% 100-60
54% 86-73
52% 83-77
50% 80-80
TTL
55% 82-68-10
53% 81-73-5
46% 68-81-11
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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