PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
65-69 | Road
1
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
71-62 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Paul Skenes
#30 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Michael King
#34 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | 9-11 | 3.95 | 1.14 | 139.0 | 171 |
| Michael King | 8-9 | 3.38 | 1.17 | 149.0 | 128 |
9-11
W-L
8-9
3.95
ERA
Ldr 3.38
1.14 Ldr
WHIP
1.17
139.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 149.0
171 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
128
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
41%
PADRES
59%
▲ Edge: +3.60% (SD)
PIRATES
47%
Book Odds: +115
PADRES
55%
Book Odds: -123
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.3 (Over)
Over 7.0
72%
Under 7.0
28%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.9
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT +0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
10.9%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.5%
SD By 3-4 runs
16.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
4.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 2.80
San Diego
5.1
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 2.80
San Diego
2
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Pirates
Win
69% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.9
D
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.3
B
Sim
u7.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
PIT @ SD
0 - 3
Aug 25, 2026
PIT @ SD
1 - 0
Aug 24, 2026
PIT @ SD
3 - 2
Apr 8, 2026
SD @ PIT
8 - 2
Apr 7, 2026
SD @ PIT
1 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.734
OPS
▲
.925
186
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+45.0% more
San Diego: 1.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+33.3% more
San Diego: 13.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 10.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+26.8% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.7
Hits (L5)
+23.1% more
San Diego: 8.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 6.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.2
1
SD Score
5.1
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 6.6
3.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 10.8
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 10.1
4.0 / 10.0
Walks
4.4 / 4.0
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -103 / -117
→
+115 / -123
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
PIT
SD
PIT
ML
51%
85-83
52%
82-77
51%
85-82
52%
85-78
ATS
54%
91-77
54%
86-73
55%
92-75
50%
81-82
TTL
51%
82-80-6
47%
72-81-6
54%
86-74-6
50%
79-78-6
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