MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
64-69 | Road
2
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
52-81 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Taj Bradley
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gage Jump
#61 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taj Bradley | 9-5 | 3.90 | 1.28 | 140.2 | 158 |
| Gage Jump | 5-8 | 4.83 | 1.51 | 82.0 | 88 |
9-5
W-L
5-8
3.90 Ldr
ERA
4.83
1.28 Ldr
WHIP
1.51
140.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
82.0
158 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
88
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
61%
ATHLETICS
39%
▲ Edge: +1.30% (MIN)
TWINS
60%
Book Odds: -147
ATHLETICS
42%
Book Odds: +137
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
10.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.3 (Under)
Over 10.0
39%
Under 10.0
61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.1
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH +1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIN By 3-4 runs
16.6%
ATH By 1-2 runs
16.1%
ATH By 3-4 runs
10.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
4.9
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 5.80
Athletics
3.8
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Minnesota
7
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 5.80
Athletics
3
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Twins
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Sim
Twins
Loss
84% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Athletics (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.1
D
Sim
Twins (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u10.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
C
Sim
o10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
MIN @ ATH
4 - 7
Aug 25, 2026
MIN @ ATH
2 - 4
Aug 24, 2026
MIN @ ATH
9 - 6
Jul 26, 2026
ATH @ MIN
8 - 11
Jul 25, 2026
ATH @ MIN
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Athletics
ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.245
Avg (AVG)
.245
.317
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720
▲
OPS
.719
187
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+30.0% more
Minnesota: 1.1
vs
Athletics: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+13.7% more
Minnesota: 16.0
vs
Athletics: 13.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+5.5% more
Minnesota: 4.6
vs
Athletics: 4.3
Walks (L5)
+33.6% more
Athletics: 3.3
vs
Minnesota: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
4.9
2
ATH Score
3.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.7 / 10.2
7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 7.2
12.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 16.0
14.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.3 / 2.5
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -151 / +125
→
-147 / +137
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5
→
10
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
MIN
ATH
MIN
ML
59%
95-67
52%
84-78
54%
87-74
50%
80-81
ATS
52%
84-78
59%
95-67
50%
81-80
59%
95-66
TTL
54%
84-73-5
51%
78-75-9
42%
66-90-5
53%
80-72-9
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