CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
76-57 | Road
4
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
70-63 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Clay Holmes
#25 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Pfaadt
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Holmes | 5-6 | 2.49 | 1.11 | 68.2 | 50 |
| Brandon Pfaadt | 7-1 | 3.39 | 1.14 | 98.1 | 69 |
5-6
W-L
7-1
2.49 Ldr
ERA
3.39
1.11 Ldr
WHIP
1.14
68.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 98.1
50
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 69
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
71%
DIAMONDBACKS
29%
▲ Edge: +19.70% (CHC)
CUBS
51%
Book Odds: -104
DIAMONDBACKS
51%
Book Odds: -104
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.2 (Over)
Over 8.0
72%
Under 8.0
28%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.3%
CHC By 3-4 runs
19.0%
ARI By 1-2 runs
12.4%
ARI By 3-4 runs
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
6.3
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Arizona
3.9
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cubs
Loss
71% Win Prob
A
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.4
C
Sim
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.2
B
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
CHC @ ARI
0 - 2
Aug 25, 2026
CHC @ ARI
4 - 5
Aug 24, 2026
CHC @ ARI
7 - 0
May 3, 2026
ARI @ CHC
4 - 8
May 2, 2026
ARI @ CHC
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Arizona
ARI
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.374
OPS
▲
.720
0
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+75.7% more
Chicago: 2.5
vs
Arizona: 0.6
Walks (L5)
+44.5% more
Chicago: 4.8
vs
Arizona: 2.7
Total Bases (L5)
+40.7% more
Chicago: 20.8
vs
Arizona: 12.4
Hits (L5)
+24.6% more
Chicago: 10.6
vs
Arizona: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
6.3
4
ARI Score
3.9
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 10.6
5.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 2.5
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.1 / 6.8
6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 20.8
9.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.7 / 4.8
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -111 / -109
→
-104 / -104
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
CHC
ARI
CHC
ML
54%
87-74
58%
93-68
54%
86-74
51%
82-79
ATS
57%
91-70
61%
97-63-1
56%
89-71
47%
75-85-1
TTL
52%
80-73-8
52%
81-74-6
49%
73-77-9
46%
72-83-6
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