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TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

66-67  |  Road

7
FINAL
Tue, Aug 25 • 7:40 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

69-63  |  Home

11
Probable Pitchers
Jacob deGrom
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob deGrom

#48 | Starting Pitcher
@
Anthony Kay
STARTING PITCHER

Anthony Kay

#18 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jacob deGrom 9-8 3.77 1.13 126.2 157
Anthony Kay 9-6 3.96 1.33 127.1 104
9-8 W-L 9-6
3.77 Ldr ERA 3.96
1.13 Ldr WHIP 1.33
126.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 127.1
157 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 104
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
54%
📊
WHITE SOX
46%
▲ Edge: +1% (TEX)
RANGERS 53% Book Odds: -111
WHITE SOX 49% Book Odds: +103
Book Implied: 52.60% / 49.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 (Over)
Over 7.0 74%
Under 7.0 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Chicago)
RangersTEX (-1.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+1.5)
Chicago White Sox (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

46.0%

White Sox Cover

54.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHW +0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.0%

TEX By 3-4 runs

14.7%

CHW By 1-2 runs

17.7%

CHW By 3-4 runs

12.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.20
4.6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 2.80
Simulated Score
3
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.20
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 2.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rangers Loss
54% Win Prob
C
Sim White Sox Win
69% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI White Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.4
C
Sim White Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.6
A
Sim o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 26, 2026 TEX @ CHW 4 - 10
Aug 25, 2026 TEX @ CHW 7 - 11
Aug 24, 2026 TEX @ CHW 11 - 2
Jul 22, 2026 CHW @ TEX 4 - 2
Jul 21, 2026 CHW @ TEX 0 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Chicago CHW
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.15
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.713
OPS
▲ .826
183 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.5% more
Texas: 183.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Hits (L5) +34.0% more
Texas: 9.0 vs Chicago: 5.9
Total Bases (L5) +33.2% more
Texas: 16.1 vs Chicago: 10.8
Strikeouts (L5) +22.4% more
Texas: 9.7 vs Chicago: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 5.0 7
CHW Score 4.6 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.0 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 5.9 / 9.0 14.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.3 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 9.7 7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 10.8 / 16.1 21.0 / 23.0
Walks 5.1 / 2.5 5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -112 → -111 / +103 ↓
56%TICKETS44%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
50%TICKETS50%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 7 ↓
77%TICKETS23%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
TEX
CHW
TEX
ML
49% 81-86
53% 86-76
56% 94-73
57% 91-70
ATS
59% 99-68
57% 92-70
56% 93-74
61% 98-63
TTL
58% 96-69-2
53% 78-70-14
51% 84-81-2
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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