MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
81-51 | Road
2
NEW YORK
METSNYM
60-72 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Harrison
#52 | Starting Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Zac Thornton
#49 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Harrison | 10-3 | 2.84 | 1.11 | 98.1 | 122 |
| Zac Thornton | 3-4 | 3.04 | 1.15 | 50.1 | 36 |
10-3
W-L
3-4
2.84 Ldr
ERA
3.04
1.11 Ldr
WHIP
1.15
98.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
50.1
122 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
36
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
43%
METS
57%
▲ Edge: +16.20% (NYM)
BREWERS
61%
Book Odds: -158
METS
41%
Book Odds: +147
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.4 (Over)
Over 7.5
63%
Under 7.5
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
MIL By 1-2 runs
17.0%
MIL By 3-4 runs
11.5%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.4%
NYM By 3-4 runs
15.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
4.1
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.50
New York
4.8
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.50
New York
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim
Brewers
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
B
Sim
Brewers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.9
C
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 27, 2026
MIL @ NYM
8 - 2
Aug 26, 2026
MIL @ NYM
8 - 1
Aug 25, 2026
MIL @ NYM
2 - 3
Jul 22, 2026
NYM @ MIL
3 - 4
Jul 21, 2026
NYM @ MIL
4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.743
▲
OPS
.705
154
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+99.0% more
New York: 1.6
vs
Milwaukee: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+44.5% more
New York: 10.6
vs
Milwaukee: 7.3
Home Runs (Season)
+32.5% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Milwaukee: 154.0
Total Bases (L5)
+12.5% more
New York: 15.7
vs
Milwaukee: 14.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
4.1
2
NYM Score
4.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.1 / 10.0
11.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.6
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.6 / 7.3
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
15.7 / 14.0
18.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.7 / 3.5
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -167 / +138
→
-158 / +147
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
MIL
NYM
MIL
ML
50%
79-80
62%
101-61
48%
76-83
52%
84-78
ATS
58%
93-66
58%
94-68
49%
78-81
48%
78-84
TTL
55%
80-66-13
40%
62-92-8
51%
74-72-13
50%
77-77-8
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