Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Nationals COL @ WSH

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

51-81  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Aug 25 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

62-72  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Adams

#38 | Starting Pitcher
@
Andrew Alvarez
STARTING PITCHER

Andrew Alvarez

#54 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Adams 0-0 0.00 0.00 -- --
Andrew Alvarez 2-5 3.60 1.34 80.0 74
0-0 W-L 2-5
0.00 Ldr ERA 3.60
0.00 Ldr WHIP 1.34
-- IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 80.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 74
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
50%
📊
NATIONALS
50%
▲ Edge: +9.20% (COL)
ROCKIES 41% Book Odds: +147
NATIONALS 61% Book Odds: -157
Book Implied: 40.50% / 61.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.4 (Under)
Over 8.5 47%
Under 8.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Colorado)
RockiesCOL (+1.5) 0 NationalsWSH (-1.5)
Colorado Rockies (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

51.0%

Nationals Cover

49.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

COL By 1-2 runs

18.6%

COL By 3-4 runs

13.9%

WSH By 1-2 runs

18.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.1
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.50
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
2
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.50
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
68% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim Nationals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 27, 2026 COL @ WSH 1 - 7
Aug 26, 2026 COL @ WSH 13 - 1
Aug 25, 2026 COL @ WSH 3 - 1
Aug 24, 2026 COL @ WSH 3 - 13
Jul 22, 2026 WSH @ COL 8 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.64
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.417
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.739
OPS
▲ .744
180
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +90.5% more
Colorado: 1.1 vs Washington: 0.1
Home Runs (L5) +48.2% more
Colorado: 1.1 vs Washington: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5) +17.4% more
Colorado: 9.2 vs Washington: 7.6
Batting Avg (Season) +0.8%
Colorado: 25.4% vs Washington: 24.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 4.1 3
WSH Score 4.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.9 / 7.2 5.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 9.2 11.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 12.1 / 12.4 9.0 / 12.0
Walks 5.1 / 2.9 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +217 / -274 → +147 / -157 ↓
19%TICKETS81%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
20%TICKETS80%
2%MONEY98%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 8.5 ↑
78%TICKETS22%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
COL
WSH
COL
ML
57% 92-69
60% 97-64
54% 87-74
55% 88-73
ATS
58% 93-68
60% 97-64
57% 91-70
52% 83-78
TTL
50% 77-78-6
60% 93-62-6
42% 65-90-6
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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