ESPANYOLESPANYOL
2-1-4 | Home
1
REAL MADRIDREAL MADRID
5-0-2 | Away
2
AI Model Win Probability
ESPANYOL
35%
DRAW
31%
REAL MADRID
35%
▲ Edge: +37.10% (Espanyol)
13%
Book Odds: +675
DRAW
20%
Book Odds: +395
70%
Book Odds: -230
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 3.0
45%
Under 3.0
55%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
ESPANYOL
Book Goal Line
+1.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 goals (Espanyol)
Soccer Match Statistics
Possession
37.3% / 62.7%
Shots (On Goal)
8(3) / 21(8)
Corners
0 / 8
Cards (Y/R)
5/0 - 1/0
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Espanyol 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Espanyol)
Espanyol By 1 goal
21.1%
Espanyol By 2+ goals
15.9%
Real Madrid By 1 goal
21.1%
Real Madrid By 2+ goals
15.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Espanyol
1
ESPANYOL
Book Implied: 0.90
Real Madrid
1
REAL MADRID
Book Implied: 2.10
Simulated Score
Espanyol
0
ESPANYOL
Book Implied: 0.90
Real Madrid
2
REAL MADRID
Book Implied: 2.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Draw
Win
53% Win Prob
B
Sim
Real Madrid
Win
81% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Espanyol (+1.25)
Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
B
Sim
Real Madrid (+1.25)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
u3.0
Push
Proj Total: 2.0
B
Sim
u3.0
Push
Proj Total: 2.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 22, 2026
Espanyol vs Real Madrid
1 - 2
Sep 20, 2025
Real Madrid vs Espanyol
2 - 0
Feb 1, 2025
Espanyol vs Real Madrid
1 - 0
Sep 21, 2024
Real Madrid vs Espanyol
4 - 1
Mar 11, 2023
Real Madrid vs Espanyol
3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5)
+100.0% more
Real Madrid: 0.0
vs
Espanyol: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5)
+33.3% more
Real Madrid: 12.0
vs
Espanyol: 9.0
Wins (L5)
+33.3% more
Real Madrid: 4.0
vs
Espanyol: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5)
+25.0% more
Real Madrid: 4.0
vs
Espanyol: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
Real Madrid Score
1.0
2
Espanyol Score
1.0
1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Espanyol (Home)
vs
Real Madrid (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Book Line: 2.5 Goals
AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AI Projected Score
1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Espanyol
Real Madrid
Espanyol
Real Madrid
ML
57%
4-3
71%
5-2
43%
3-4
71%
5-2
ATS
71%
5-2
43%
3-4
29%
2-5
43%
3-4
TTL
50%
3-3-1
67%
4-2-1
45%
2-3-1
67%
4-2-1