Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Valencia vs Celta Vigo Valencia vs Celta Vigo

VALENCIAVALENCIA

1-1-5  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Aug 22 • 1:30 PM ET
Mestalla Stadium

CELTA VIGOCELTA VIGO

1-4-2  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
VALENCIA
61%
DRAW
21%
CELTA VIGO
18%
▲ Edge: +23.20% (Celta Vigo)
40% Book Odds: +150
DRAW 31% Book Odds: +219
31% Book Odds: +218
Book Implied: 40% / 31.30% / 31.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.25
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 (Over)
Over 2.25 54%
Under 2.25 46%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
VALENCIA
Book Goal Line
-0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Valencia)
ValenciaValencia (-0.2) 0 Celta VigoCelta Vigo (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

44.4% / 55.6%

Shots (On Goal)

8(2) / 7(3)

Corners

1 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Valencia -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Valencia)

Valencia By 1 goal

26.1%

Valencia By 2+ goals

36.9%

Celta Vigo By 1 goal

11.1%

Celta Vigo By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
VALENCIA
Book Implied: 1.20
1
CELTA VIGO
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
VALENCIA
Book Implied: 1.20
1
CELTA VIGO
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Valencia Loss
45% Win Prob
C
Sim Valencia Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Valencia (-0.25)
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Sim Valencia (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.25 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.3 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 22, 2026 Valencia vs Celta Vigo 0 - 0
Apr 5, 2026 Valencia vs Celta Vigo 2 - 3
Jan 3, 2026 Celta Vigo vs Valencia 4 - 1
Feb 2, 2025 Valencia vs Celta Vigo 2 - 1
Aug 23, 2024 Celta Vigo vs Valencia 3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +66.7% more
Valencia: 10.0 vs Celta Vigo: 6.0
Wins (L5) +50.0% more
Valencia: 3.0 vs Celta Vigo: 2.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Celta Vigo: 2.0 vs Valencia: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +40.0% more
Celta Vigo: 5.0 vs Valencia: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Celta Vigo Score 1.0 0
Valencia Score 2.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Valencia (Home) vs Celta Vigo (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Valencia Share: 66.7% Celta Vigo Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Valencia
Celta Vigo
Valencia
Celta Vigo
ML
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
14% 1-6
ATS
83% 5-1
15% 1-5
50% 3-3
14% 1-6
TTL
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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