Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Athletic vs Sevilla Athletic vs Sevilla

ATHLETICATHLETIC

2-2-2  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Aug 22 • 11:00 AM ET
San Mamés

SEVILLASEVILLA

4-1-2  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETIC
35%
DRAW
31%
SEVILLA
35%
▲ Edge: +30.10% (Sevilla)
56% Book Odds: -126
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +266
20% Book Odds: +403
Book Implied: 55.80% / 27.30% / 19.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.25
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 2.25 43%
Under 2.25 57%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
SEVILLA
Book Goal Line
+0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Sevilla)
AthleticAthletic (-0.8) 0 SevillaSevilla (+0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

64.9% / 35.1%

Shots (On Goal)

18(8) / 7(4)

Corners

10 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

2/1 - 5/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Sevilla 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Sevilla)

Athletic Club By 1 goal

21.1%

Athletic Club By 2+ goals

15.9%

Sevilla By 1 goal

21.1%

Sevilla By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
ATHLETIC
Book Implied: 1.50
1
SEVILLA
Book Implied: 0.80
Simulated Score
2
ATHLETIC
Book Implied: 1.50
1
SEVILLA
Book Implied: 0.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Win
53% Win Prob
B
Sim Athletic Club Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Sevilla (+0.75) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim Athletic Club (-0.75) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.25 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
A
Sim o2.3 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 22, 2026 Athletic vs Sevilla 1 - 3
Jan 24, 2026 Sevilla vs Athletic 2 - 1
Aug 17, 2025 Athletic vs Sevilla 3 - 2
Mar 16, 2025 Sevilla vs Athletic 0 - 1
Sep 29, 2024 Athletic vs Sevilla 1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Sevilla: 2.0 vs Athletic: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +28.6% more
Sevilla: 7.0 vs Athletic: 9.0
Goals Scored (L5) +20.0% more
Sevilla: 6.0 vs Athletic: 5.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Athletic: 1.0 vs Sevilla: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Sevilla Score 1.0 3
Athletic Club Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Athletic Club (Home) vs Sevilla (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Athletic Club Share: 50.0% Sevilla Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Athletic Club
Sevilla
Athletic Club
Sevilla
ML
83% 5-1
86% 6-1
17% 1-5
43% 3-4
ATS
67% 4-2
86% 6-1
33% 2-4
54% 3-3
TTL
67% 4-2
43% 3-4
67% 4-2
86% 6-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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