Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Cruz Azul vs Atlas Cruz Azul vs Atlas

CRUZ AZULCRUZ AZUL

5-1-4  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Aug 22 • 11:00 PM ET
Estadio Banorte

ATLASATLAS

5-2-3  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
CRUZ AZUL
61%
DRAW
21%
ATLAS
18%
▲ Edge: +19.90% (Atlas)
62% Book Odds: -161
DRAW 24% Book Odds: +318
18% Book Odds: +454
Book Implied: 61.70% / 23.90% / 18.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 55%
Under 2.75 45%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
ATLAS
Book Goal Line
+1
Book Line
Cruz AzulCruz Azul (-1) 0 AtlasAtlas (+1)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

51.8% / 48.2%

Shots (On Goal)

25(5) / 11(5)

Corners

9 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 0/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Atlas +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Atlas)

Cruz Azul By 1 goal

26.1%

Cruz Azul By 2+ goals

36.9%

Atlas By 1 goal

11.1%

Atlas By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
CRUZ AZUL
Book Implied: 1.90
1
ATLAS
Book Implied: 0.90
Simulated Score
3
CRUZ AZUL
Book Implied: 1.90
0
ATLAS
Book Implied: 0.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Cruz Azul Loss
62% Win Prob
B
Sim Cruz Azul Loss
94% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Atlas (-1) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Sim Cruz Azul (-1) Loss
Proj Goals: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 22, 2026 Cruz Azul vs Atlas 0 - 2
Jan 14, 2026 Cruz Azul vs Atlas 2 - 0
Jul 19, 2025 Atlas vs Cruz Azul 3 - 3
Jan 11, 2025 Cruz Azul vs Atlas 1 - 1
Nov 6, 2024 Atlas vs Cruz Azul 2 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +40.0% more
Cruz Azul: 5.0 vs Atlas: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Atlas Score 1.0 2
Cruz Azul Score 2.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Cruz Azul (Home) vs Atlas (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Cruz Azul Share: 66.7% Atlas Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Cruz Azul
Atlas
Cruz Azul
Atlas
ML
60% 6-4
60% 6-4
50% 5-5
40% 4-6
ATS
44% 4-5-1
47% 4-5
44% 4-5-1
42% 4-5
TTL
44% 4-5-1
80% 8-2
50% 5-5
50% 5-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No relevant news articles found for this game.