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PUEBLAPUEBLA

4-2-4  |  Home

3
FINAL
Sat, Aug 22 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Cuauhtémoc

SANTOSSANTOS

3-1-6  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
PUEBLA
35%
DRAW
31%
SANTOS
35%
▲ Edge: +20.80% (Santos)
47% Book Odds: +111
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +274
29% Book Odds: +242
Book Implied: 47.40% / 26.70% / 29.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 49%
Under 2.75 51%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
SANTOS
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Santos)
PueblaPuebla (-0.2) 0 SantosSantos (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

38.4% / 61.6%

Shots (On Goal)

16(7) / 6(2)

Corners

6 / 7

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Santos 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Santos)

Puebla By 1 goal

21.1%

Puebla By 2+ goals

15.9%

Santos By 1 goal

21.1%

Santos By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 1.50
1
SANTOS
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
2
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 1.50
1
SANTOS
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
42% Win Prob
C
Sim Puebla Win
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Santos (+0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Puebla (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim o2.8 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 22, 2026 Puebla vs Santos 3 - 2
Mar 22, 2026 Santos vs Puebla 2 - 1
Jul 25, 2025 Puebla vs Santos 1 - 0
Feb 2, 2025 Santos vs Puebla 0 - 2
Jul 5, 2024 Puebla vs Santos 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +116.7% more
Santos: 6.0 vs Puebla: 13.0
Goals Scored (L5) +133.3% more
Puebla: 7.0 vs Santos: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Santos Score 1.0 2
Puebla Score 1.0 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Puebla (Home) vs Santos (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Puebla Share: 50.0% Santos Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Puebla
Santos
Puebla
Santos
ML
50% 5-5
50% 5-5
50% 5-5
70% 7-3
ATS
62% 5-3-2
44% 4-5-1
64% 4-2-3
67% 6-3-1
TTL
44% 4-5-1
68% 6-3
50% 5-5
47% 4-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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