Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / León vs Monterrey León vs Monterrey

LEÓNLEÓN

5-2-3  |  Home

2
FINAL
Fri, Aug 21 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio León

MONTERREYMONTERREY

4-1-4  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
LEÓN
61%
DRAW
21%
MONTERREY
18%
▲ Edge: +17.10% (Monterrey)
32% Book Odds: +212
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +266
44% Book Odds: +128
Book Implied: 32.10% / 27.30% / 43.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 50%
Under 2.75 50%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
LEÓN
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 goals (León)
LeónLeón (+0.2) 0 MonterreyMonterrey (-0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

34.9% / 65.1%

Shots (On Goal)

11(5) / 20(4)

Corners

3 / 10

Cards (Y/R)

1/1 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around León -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (León)

León By 1 goal

26.1%

León By 2+ goals

36.9%

Monterrey By 1 goal

11.1%

Monterrey By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1.20
1
MONTERREY
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
1
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1.20
2
MONTERREY
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI León Win
39% Win Prob
D
Sim Monterrey Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI León (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Sim Monterrey (+0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 21, 2026 León vs Monterrey 2 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
León: 1.0 vs Monterrey: 0.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
León: 0.0 vs Monterrey: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +25.0% more
León: 4.0 vs Monterrey: 5.0
Goals Scored (L5) +57.1% more
Monterrey: 11.0 vs León: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Monterrey Score 1.0 0
León Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
León (Home) vs Monterrey (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
León Share: 66.7% Monterrey Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
León
Monterrey
León
Monterrey
ML
50% 5-5
44% 4-5
30% 3-7
44% 4-5
ATS
57% 4-3-3
53% 4-4
29% 2-5-3
44% 4-5
TTL
37% 3-6
44% 4-5
47% 4-5
44% 4-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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