Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Guadalajara vs Tijuana Guadalajara vs Tijuana

GUADALAJARAGUADALAJARA

5-3-2  |  Home

5
FINAL
Sat, Aug 22 • 7:07 PM ET
Estadio Akron

TIJUANATIJUANA

4-2-3  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
GUADALAJARA
78%
DRAW
13%
TIJUANA
9%
▲ Edge: +14.50% (Tijuana)
67% Book Odds: -205
DRAW 20% Book Odds: +395
16% Book Odds: +510
Book Implied: 67.20% / 20.20% / 16.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 62%
Under 2.75 38%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-2.0
GUADALAJARA
Book Goal Line
-1.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Guadalajara)
GuadalajaraGuadalajara (-1.2) 0 TijuanaTijuana (+1.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

58.9% / 41.1%

Shots (On Goal)

13(8) / 16(4)

Corners

4 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

90.9%

Cover

9.1%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Guadalajara -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Guadalajara)

Guadalajara By 1 goal

21.1%

Guadalajara By 2+ goals

63.1%

Tijuana By 1 goal

3.8%

Tijuana By 2+ goals

1.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3
GUADALAJARA
Book Implied: 2
1
TIJUANA
Book Implied: 0.80
Simulated Score
2
GUADALAJARA
Book Implied: 2
0
TIJUANA
Book Implied: 0.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Guadalajara Win
69% Win Prob
A
Sim Guadalajara Win
80% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Guadalajara (-1.25) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Sim Guadalajara (-1.25) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.75 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
A
Sim u2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 22, 2026 Guadalajara vs Tijuana 5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Guadalajara: 1.0 vs Tijuana: 3.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Guadalajara: 2.0 vs Tijuana: 1.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Guadalajara: 2.0 vs Tijuana: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +75.0% more
Guadalajara: 4.0 vs Tijuana: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Tijuana Score 1.0 2
Guadalajara Score 3.0 5
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 77.5% Draw: 13.1% Away Win: 9.4%
Guadalajara (Home) vs Tijuana (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 76.2% Under 2.5: 23.8%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 4.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Guadalajara Share: 75.0% Tijuana Share: 25.0%
AI Projected Score 3.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Guadalajara
Tijuana
Guadalajara
Tijuana
ML
50% 5-5
22% 2-7
60% 6-4
44% 4-5
ATS
86% 6-1-3
75% 6-2-1
57% 4-3-3
50% 4-4-1
TTL
83% 7-1-1
67% 6-3
56% 5-4-1
44% 4-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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