Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Queretaro vs Toluca Queretaro vs Toluca

QUERETAROQUERETARO

5-2-2  |  Home

1
FINAL
Fri, Aug 21 • 11:10 PM ET
Estadio Corregidora

TOLUCATOLUCA

6-2-2  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
QUERETARO
18%
DRAW
21%
TOLUCA
61%
▲ Edge: +22.80% (Querétaro)
27% Book Odds: +272
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +287
51% Book Odds: -103
Book Implied: 26.90% / 25.80% / 50.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 49%
Under 3.0 51%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
TOLUCA
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Toluca)
QueretaroQueretaro (+0.5) 0 TolucaToluca (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

50.3% / 49.7%

Shots (On Goal)

18(3) / 18(3)

Corners

7 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 3/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Toluca -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Toluca)

Querétaro By 1 goal

11.1%

Querétaro By 2+ goals

4.8%

Toluca By 1 goal

26.1%

Toluca By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1.20
2
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 1.80
Simulated Score
1
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1.20
2
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 1.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Toluca Win
50% Win Prob
C
Sim Toluca Win
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Toluca (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Toluca (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Push
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u3.0 Push
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 21, 2026 Queretaro vs Toluca 1 - 2
Apr 4, 2026 Queretaro vs Toluca 1 - 0
Oct 18, 2025 Toluca vs Queretaro 4 - 0
Feb 26, 2025 Toluca vs Queretaro 5 - 0
Oct 18, 2024 Queretaro vs Toluca 0 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +500.0% more
Toluca: 6.0 vs Queretaro: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +200.0% more
Toluca: 2.0 vs Queretaro: 6.0
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Toluca: 2.0 vs Queretaro: 0.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Toluca: 1.0 vs Queretaro: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Toluca Score 2.0 2
Querétaro Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Querétaro (Home) vs Toluca (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Querétaro Share: 33.3% Toluca Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Querétaro
Toluca
Querétaro
Toluca
ML
22% 2-7
60% 6-4
22% 2-7
60% 6-4
ATS
71% 5-2-2
50% 4-4-2
25% 2-6-1
75% 6-2-2
TTL
62% 5-3-1
33% 3-6-1
50% 4-4-1
67% 6-3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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