Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Juárez vs América Juárez vs América

JUÁREZJUÁREZ

1-0-9  |  Home

1
FINAL
Fri, Aug 21 • 11:10 PM ET
Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

AMÉRICAAMÉRICA

6-2-1  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
JUÁREZ
18%
DRAW
21%
AMÉRICA
61%
▲ Edge: +29.30% (FC Juárez)
20% Book Odds: +398
DRAW 24% Book Odds: +313
59% Book Odds: -146
Book Implied: 20.10% / 24.20% / 59.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 54%
Under 2.5 46%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
AMÉRICA
Book Goal Line
-0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (América)
JuárezJuárez (+0.8) 0 AméricaAmérica (-0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

40.8% / 59.2%

Shots (On Goal)

10(3) / 18(10)

Corners

5 / 7

Cards (Y/R)

5/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around América -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (América)

FC Juárez By 1 goal

11.1%

FC Juárez By 2+ goals

4.8%

América By 1 goal

26.1%

América By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
JUÁREZ
Book Implied: 0.90
2
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 1.60
Simulated Score
1
JUÁREZ
Book Implied: 0.90
2
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 1.60
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI América Win
51% Win Prob
B
Sim América Win
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI América (-0.75) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Sim América (+0.75) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o2.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Sim o2.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 21, 2026 Juárez vs América 1 - 2
Mar 4, 2026 América vs Juárez 1 - 2
Jul 11, 2025 Juárez vs América 1 - 1
Feb 1, 2025 América vs Juárez 4 - 0
Jul 20, 2024 Juárez vs América 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +266.7% more
América: 3.0 vs Juárez: 11.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
América: 0.0 vs Juárez: 2.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
América: 1.0 vs Juárez: 0.0
Goals Scored (L5) +66.7% more
América: 10.0 vs Juárez: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
América Score 2.0 2
FC Juárez Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
FC Juárez (Home) vs América (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
FC Juárez Share: 33.3% América Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FC Juárez
América
FC Juárez
América
ML
60% 6-4
67% 6-3
70% 7-3
78% 7-2
ATS
38% 3-5-2
50% 4-4-1
78% 7-2-1
100% 7-0-2
TTL
56% 5-4-1
56% 5-4
78% 7-2-1
78% 7-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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