CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
62-70 | Road
0
SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
53-78 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Chase Burns
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Carson Whisenhunt
#88 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Burns | 14-2 | 2.51 | 1.11 | 136.0 | 159 |
| Carson Whisenhunt | 3-4 | 7.03 | 1.84 | 32.0 | 23 |
14-2
W-L
3-4
2.51 Ldr
ERA
7.03
1.11 Ldr
WHIP
1.84
136.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
32.0
159 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
23
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
58%
GIANTS
42%
▲ Edge: +3.60% (SF)
REDS
63%
Book Odds: -170
GIANTS
39%
Book Odds: +158
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.3
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +3.8 (Over)
Over 7.5
85%
Under 7.5
15%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.9
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF +0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.5%
CIN By 3-4 runs
16.1%
SF By 1-2 runs
16.6%
SF By 3-4 runs
10.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
6.1
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 4.50
San Francisco
5.2
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 4.50
San Francisco
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Loss
58% Win Prob
B
Sim
Giants
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Giants (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.9
D
Sim
Giants (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.3
A
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
CIN @ SF
10 - 9
Aug 25, 2026
CIN @ SF
1 - 3
Aug 24, 2026
CIN @ SF
0 - 5
Apr 16, 2026
SF @ CIN
3 - 0
Apr 15, 2026
SF @ CIN
3 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
San Francisco
SF
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.13
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.306
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.699
OPS
▲
.706
213
▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+33.9% more
Cincinnati: 4.4
vs
San Francisco: 2.9
Home Runs (Season)
+16.4% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
San Francisco: 178.0
Total Bases (L5)
+15.2% more
Cincinnati: 14.2
vs
San Francisco: 12.1
Errors (L5)
+12.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.5
vs
San Francisco: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
6.1
0
SF Score
5.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.5 / 8.5
10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.2
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 8.0
11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.1 / 14.2
18.0 / 5.0
Walks
2.9 / 4.4
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -134 / +111
→
-170 / +158
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
Advantage
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
SF
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
CIN
SF
CIN
ML
49%
79-81
55%
88-71
53%
85-75
49%
79-81
ATS
62%
100-60
54%
86-73
52%
83-77
50%
80-80
TTL
55%
82-68-10
53%
81-73-5
46%
68-81-11
54%
83-72-5
Contextual Game News
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
Padres' Bullpen Boosted for Game 4 as Miller Returns, King Avail…
Padres Reinforce Bullpen as Mason Miller Rejoins for NLDS Game 4