PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
64-69 | Road
3
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
71-61 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Robbie Ray
#38 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Ashcraft | 13-5 | 3.68 | 1.08 | 149.1 | 159 |
| Robbie Ray | 11-7 | 3.20 | 1.31 | 137.2 | 117 |
13-5
W-L
11-7
3.68
ERA
Ldr 3.20
1.08 Ldr
WHIP
1.31
149.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
137.2
159 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
117
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
46%
PADRES
54%
▲ Edge: +1.60% (SD)
PIRATES
49%
Book Odds: +104
PADRES
53%
Book Odds: -112
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.6 (Over)
Over 7.5
66%
Under 7.5
34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
PIT By 1-2 runs
17.5%
PIT By 3-4 runs
12.1%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.1%
SD By 3-4 runs
15.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
4.3
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.50
San Diego
4.8
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.50
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Padres
Loss
54% Win Prob
A
Sim
Pirates
Win
61% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
A
Sim
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.1
A
Sim
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
PIT @ SD
0 - 3
Aug 25, 2026
PIT @ SD
1 - 0
Aug 24, 2026
PIT @ SD
3 - 2
Apr 8, 2026
SD @ PIT
8 - 2
Apr 7, 2026
SD @ PIT
1 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.734
OPS
▲
.925
186
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+118.0% more
San Diego: 1.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+81.9% more
San Diego: 15.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 8.6
Hits (L5)
+60.5% more
San Diego: 8.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 5.4
Walks (L5)
+38.5% more
San Diego: 4.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.3
3
SD Score
4.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.7 / 5.4
7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.3 / 11.3
15.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
15.6 / 8.6
9.0 / 13.0
Walks
4.1 / 3.0
5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +104 / -126
→
+104 / -112
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
PIT
SD
PIT
ML
51%
85-83
52%
82-77
51%
85-82
52%
85-78
ATS
54%
91-77
54%
86-73
55%
92-75
50%
81-82
TTL
51%
82-80-6
47%
72-81-6
54%
86-74-6
50%
79-78-6
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